SAR #9031/Weekender

Appealing to our better nature assumes facts not in evidence.

Only the Little People Pay Taxes: No, not Leona Helmsley; Tom Daschle. On December 11th, Tom Daschle, former Senate Majority Leader, was nominated as head of HHS. On Jan 2, 2009 he filed amended tax returns for 2005, 6, and 7. He neglected to report $250,000 in income over the three years. He also 'restated' his claimed charitable contributions by $15,000. A born leader.

How in hell.. At $8.5 trillion, the bailouts have already cost more than all US wars plus the New Deal and Marshall Plan, NASA and the interstates, Alaska, the Louisiana Purchase - in inflation adjusted dollars. Now we're going to add another $0.3 trillion from TARP, $0.8 trillion as a stimulus, and yet another $2 to $4 trillion for the banks.

Fate Worse Than: A fired employee attempted to destroy all the data held in Fannie Mae's 4,000 computer servers nation-wide. The economic damage, had he been successful, would have dwarfed that done on 9/11.

Gross, Very Gross: The US economy dropped at an annualized 3.8% rate in 4Q09. It would have been worse, but the unsold inventory piling up in warehouses and on the nation's car lots are counted as a Good Thing. The real number is somewhere south of 5.3%.

Efficient Markets: Some say the last depression was the direct result of politicians following incredibly bad economic advice. That's certainly true of this one.

Liberally...: The Republicans, who lost the last two elections, still dominate in one place: The liberal media. Cable news invites The Opposition to express their voter-rejected views twice as often as the other brand. It's all about ratings and ad revenue, not news.

New Neighbors: Now that the Cheneys have stopped doing secret things in the back yard, Google can once again provide a clear satellite picture of the Veep's home.

Indigestion: The oceans soften the effects of all the CO2 we dump into the air by absorbing much of it. But the process makes the seas more acidic. The acidification is accelerating; by 2050 most of the oceans will be too acidic for corals to grow and shells to form.

Stay Out Of Jail Card: Just before running off to the suburbs, George W. issued Karl Rove and Harriet Meyers good conduct letters exempting them from ever having to respond to a subpoena and confess to their Good Deeds. Or his. Like so much Bush did, it is not legal but will take years to undo.

Alternative Medicine: Electric grid operators, who have skin in the game, say that reducing carbon emissions would either cut profits or raise prices by $6 to $36 billion a year. And they're not going to lower profits. So, you want to pay for the surgery or let the gangrene eat up more of your leg?

Overlooked: In the Rush to Rescue, we overlook that economic disasters have political and social consequences. Ask Iceland, Greece, France, any victim of the IMF in the last 25 years...

The 'Pop' in Population: There will be half again as many people in the world by 2050 as there are today. If they attain even a third of the consumptive lifestyle of today's citizens of the West, the demands on energy, food and resources will double. The supply will not.

Snow No Show: Snowpack on California's mountains is 40% short of a normal year's supply of water. Another epic drought is anticipated for the growing season in a state that grows half the country's vegetables and fruits. The main system feeding water to farms and the states large cities may be able to supply only 85% of demand.

Peak Oil Production: Schlumberger CEO Andrew Gould "At current prices most of the new categories of hydrocarbon resources are not economic to develop. We expect 2009 activity to weaken across the board with the most significant declines occurring in North American gas drilling, Russian oil production enhancement and in mature offshore basins." In other words, you can't get there from here.

Past, Prologue ? On the bright side, housing prices may stop falling in a couple of years. On the less charming side, during the previous depression the economy did not pick up for 8 years after house prices leveled off.

Counterintuitive: The growth in US sales of distilled spirits slowed last year. It's not my fault.

Construction Ahead? Why are the folks in Washington tinkering with the frayed edges and ignoring the huge stains in the middle of the room? Why advocate a few minor regulatory changes when what's needed is to rip up the carpet and start over? If greed's the problem, a seriously progressive tax system can pretty much curb that - or at least make it harder to keep the ill-gotten gains. (In 2006 the top 400 incomes averaged $263 million and paid taxes at a 17% rate.) Forget it, it's not on the agenda.

Porn O'Graph: The Ice have it, or don't.

SAR #9030

None of this could have happened in a rational world.

Words of One Syllable: Only 23,000 Americans bought a new house last month, orders for durable goods fell for a fifth month (don't need those new appliances... ) and a record number were collecting jobless benefits. Now connect the dots.

Next! Avis, Hertz and the local pizza parlor's delivery guy have applied for federal bailout funds. They all use cars in their business.

One Day We'll All Be Rich: The French are pretty sure things are going to pot and they are pretty sure they will pay for the greed of the elite. So they have taken to the streets to protest. How un-American of them. Don't they know they are supposed to submit two photographs, one of their face and one of their right retina, and their fingerprints, get a permit, then go to a designated free speech area?

Match, Set: Melbourne is facing four days of temperatures above 40ºC (104ºF), the longest stretch of above 40ºC weather in a century. Just in time for the Australian Open .

Outlook Stable: In 2008, Pemex's production dropped 9.7%, after a 5.5% decline in 2007. Production is not expected to increase despite three years of $16.3 billion a year in investment in new production. Fitch Rating Service says Pemex's outlook is 'stable'. Steadily downhill.

Flying Leap: The IATA reports that December's international air cargo traffic dropped 22.6% from the prior year. Back in September 2001, when much of the world's air fleet was grounded for 10 days, air cargo only dropped 13%.

Known Unknowns: As the entire Federal apparatus flails aimlessly in the dark, a few things become clear: No one knows what to do. No one knows how bad it will become. No one knows how much money it will take. No one knows how much the banks bad assets are worth. And the folks in Washington do not want the taxpayers to know how little they know.

Put A Stake In Its Heart: The demise of the efficient market hypothesis is once again being reported. This time let's make sure the Republicans know.

Bystanders: After interviewing economists who failed to see this disaster coming, the AP concluded that no one in America objects to their tax money going to Bankers, Brokers or Detroit.

Veneer: In the wake of the ice storm across the Appalachians, folks are looking at 30 - 60 days without electricity. If you can't quite imagine what an energy-starved future would be like, go read this one. There won't even be FEMA in the future. Why should there be, there doesn't seem to be one now.

Tuning Up: The House passed a "Buy American" provision to boost the steel industry as part of the "Kiss It and Make It Better" plan. Ah, I love the smell of protectionism in the morning.

Strawiest Man Ever: Look at the chart on Net Borrowed Reserves (I've shown it to you before) and then understand that it is not scary because it represents increases in government debt. Granted the overall increase in government debt is scary, but this is even more scary because it means that banks don't have any reserves.

Chicken Feed: We keep being assured that the notional $175 trillion in derivatives is really much less because it is well hedged. But if only 1% of that goes south, it is $1.75 trillion that our too-big-to-bail-out banks will lose. If it's a modest 3%, it'll be women and children first.

If Not One, Then Two: The Fed's most recent obfuscation is a long way of saying "We have two and only two ways to influence the market (1) we can lower interest rates and (2) we can print currency. Except (1) we can't lower interest rates and (2) we're printing paper as fast as we can, so (3) we're pretty much irrelevant."

Again: Republicans (in Ohio this time) alleged widespread voter fraud in last fall's election. A special prosecutor reports found none. One man, from Connecticut did turn himself in, but he voted GOP. Print this out and put it on your refrigerator door for the next time the GOP says voting Democratic is illegal.

Hidden Message: Some say the age of growth is over, and the age of sustainability has begun. I agree that the age of growth is overing, but have no idea what comes next. Sustainability is just happy talk, unless we have sudden population decline to about 1.5 or 2 billion. And I don't see how we get there with any civilization left. Nor do I see a happy ending to the climate crisis. That last sentence is four words too long.

Porn O'Graph: If you can't sell houses, why build houses?

SAR #9029

9030

Not a Single House Republican Voted for the Fiscal Boost Plan...

The President agreed to a summit on fiscal rectitude. The Democrats added non-stimulative business tax cuts, tossed out infrastructure projects, dropped health efforts for poor women and got nothing from the Republicans. Nothing. Krugman: "Aren't you glad that Obama watered it down and added ineffective tax cuts, so as to win bipartisan support?" Enough.

* * * * *

Common Thread: Hess reports a 4Q08 loss in the oil refining business. Boeing blamed their 4Q08 loss on the unions. Wells Fargo dropped $2.6 billion, which it blames on paying too much for Wachovia. Elsewhere, money sent home by Mexican guests working in the US declined for the first time ever.

Details to Follow: The Gov is going to "help homeowners" who can afford to keep paying "more relaxed terms" "if they can demonstrate that they won't re-default ". It will "support" and "assist" in loan modifications. Fell better yet?

Save the Broccoli! Anyone who has over-cooked the broccoli to the sulfurous odor state knows it cannot be saved and the kitchen will smell for a while. All you can do is throw it in the trash, throw the trash out and start over. So too, banks.

The Wisdom of the Market: The government reported an increase in US crude oil supplies, a decrease in demand and a sharp drop in business spending on energy. Oil prices rose.

Credit When Due: Senator Bob Corker should push for a carbon tax similar to the one he and Gore discussed in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing. It is transparent, sound and eminently fair - far superior to any form of "cap and trade" which is just another way of saying "carbon offsets" which just let the rich countries/companies continue to pour CO2 into the air. Good on him.

Shocking: The introduction of tasers lead to a 600% increase in sudden deaths among arrestees in California.

Beam Me Up, Scotty: Physicists have documented the teleportation of information between two atoms in unconnected enclosures, with a 90% accuracy rate.

Private Capital: The Executive Director of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime is quoted as saying "In many instances, drug money is currently the only liquid investment capital." Bet that comes with restrictions, ownership rights and territorial disputes.

Puzzle Me This: Mortgage applications fell a seasonally adjusted 38.8% in the week ended Jan. 23 compared with the prior week. Mortgage rates also fell.

Cram It: Forget the economics of mortgage cram-downs for a moment, because this is a political decision; economics, logic and morality have nothing to do with it. People (voters) want Snidely Whiplash to get his comeuppance, want to stick it to the predatory know-betters who turned out to have clay feet. Of course a lot of those institutions don't have the money to afford a cram-down. That's the point. Their failure is devoutly wished by the populace. The politicians like it because they'll be helping the voters at no immediate cost to the government. Key word, 'immediate'.

Headline Only: Wall Street Employees Unhappy About 2008 Bonuses

The Quick Hands People: AIG - which does not stand for Always Incredibly Greedy, but should - has received abut $150 billion from the taxpayers, which it is trying to pay back by selling off its assets and giving $1 billion in 'retention payments' to those key employees whose knowledge, skill, and experience reduced the place to penury.

Magic Potion: Some say the US would do well to cut the bloated budget of the patently ineffective Pentagon. They mistake the purpose of that bloated budget. Of course it doesn't provide security, that's not the point. It does employ several million people, in the home districts of important political leaders. That's the mission . Mission Accomplished, the saying is.

Headline: The Banks Have Stolen Enough; It's Time to Take Them Over. Wish I'd said that. Oh, wait, I did.

Porn O'Graph: If it's in your store, it came by truck.

SAR #9028

Rooting for the good guys is easier when there are good guys.

Write Your Congressman: The combined market capitalization of companies receiving TARP funds is $336 billion. We gave them $350 billion. Let's have them surrender the companies to the Treasury and call it even. Or even give them the other $350 billion in exchange. Either way, we the people should end up with whatever profits breaking them up and selling them off would bring.

Completion: _________ price declines are continuing in every market in the country, while accelerating notably in some. (a) Automobile (b) Stock (c) Housing (d) Senate seat

Want Not: With 931 million hungry and malnourished in the world, it's nice to know that each week a major Scottish grocer will be sending 42 tons of unsold food to be incinerated to heat homes.

Short Form: Roubini gave an interview in Zurich - US to lose a net 3 million jobs in 2009 if Obama's stimulus can provide 3 million new ones. The unemployment rate will peak above 9% sometime in 2010. You didn't miss anything.

Future Past : The data says that City and BofA are in the same condition Fannie and Freddie were last summer, just before they were nationalized. If A = C and B = A, pretty soon B = C and they'll be goners too.

I Know What I Like : Another 'tasting' showed that wine judges, faced with three glasses of the same wine out of the same bottle, come up with three different ratings. The more they drank the better the wine tasted, just like at my house.

Slowing Down: Rowan, a US drilling service company, has stopped construction on two jackup drilling rigs and canceled the start of another. Currently only 325 of the world's 381 jackups are busy.

Very Refined: Valero Energy is maintaining low levels of gasoline production because there is little or no profit in it at today's prices. If they cannot find buyers for the 15 refineries it cannot operate at a profit, they will be closed.

Pfizer Taxpayers take over Wyeth: The government, through its main banking arm Bank of America/Citi, is giving $68 billion to Pfizer so it can nationalize Wyeth pharmaceutical.

Included in the Cost: Environmentalists plan to save the world by producing more and more ethanol from sugar cane. Someone else will have to save the tens of thousands of peasants who wield machetes 12 hours a day, cutting down the cane at near-starvation wages.

Unchained: James Lovelock, the Gaia guy, says turning all agricultural waste into charcoal and burying it will Save the World. Maybe so, but it'll make an awful lot of critters on the decomposition end of things hungry. Wonder what sort of harm that'll cause.

Faster, Not Better: The most recent Case-Shiller home price index shows a re-acceleration in the fall of prices in all of the nation's housing markets. If you want a really scary glance at the future of house prices, read Ilargi's intro to Automatic Earth's Jan 27 entry.

Instructions Not Included: The chief of the UN's FAO says that global food production must double by 2050. How this is to be done, given increasing drought, 3 billion more folks, less land for agriculture, no money for investment and the indifference of the rich was not indicated.

$cale: As times get tough, more people undertake swaps and barter for goods and services. Countries, too, it seems.

Future Present: The EU has directed that fossil-fuel fed power stations must significantly lower emissions of sulfur dioxide and the nitrogen oxides. The UK is already facing a significant shortfall in electrical generation by 2015. Meeting these emission standards will require a 20% price hike and/or power shortages at peak times.

Porn O'Graph: That Shiller kid's been writing on the walls again.

SAR #9027

Failure is always an option.

Chicken, The Game: California's Controller, John Chiang, says that he will not write $3.7 billion in checks due next week if the legislature and the governor haven't found a solution to their budgetary impasse by then. The check's not in the mail.

How many Inches in a Liter: The DJIA isn't following its own rules - stocks under $10 are not to be in the index.

Cause and Effect: The drop in Shell's 4Q09 profits may cause a reduction in new production projects this year, which will lead to lower profits next year, and so on.

It's Beginning to Look a Lot Like Christmas the 1930's: The 4Q08 GDP race: US -6.4%, Germany -7%, Japan -12%, Singapore 12.5% and Korea -22%. There may be trouble ahead. "It is the second phase of depression that does terrible things. "

Anticipation: Barron's says the market won't turn up until October 2010. That's no bull.

Re-Wind: Seems the conservatives spent Sunday lying about Obama's stimulus plan. One could hope our leaders (those who won the election) see this for waht it is: a desperate attempt to use "bipartisanship" an excuse to resume the discredited policies that voters have already rejected.

Why? Most people do not get cancer. Why not?

No Exit? Larry Summers says the US is entering a 'difficult time' but that Obama's TARP will be 'very different' than the Bush-Paulson edition. Paisley is my guess.

Shorter Showers: Do you really need 850 liters of fresh water every morning? And that's just the OJ. If you have a cup of coffee and a shower you're into next week's allotment of water. The UN says one third of the world's population does not have sufficient supplies of potable water. Shower with a friend.

Today's List: Caterpillar to cut 20,000 jobs, Home Depot 7,000, Starbucks 1,000, Sprint 8,000, Microsoft 5,000, Intel 6,000, Ericsson 5,000, IBM 2,800, Eaton 5,200, Clear Channel 1,800, Bose 1,000, Pfizer 8,000, Deere 700, TI 3,400, Philips 6,000, ING 7,000, GM 2,000. Time's up.

Bataan: Emperor penguins - those of Marching fame - are headed for extinction as the sea ice they depend on is disappearing faster than they can evolve to meet the change.

Employee Benefit: Canon lets its employees leave early twice a week so they can go home and increase production the population.

Good Job: US Treasury guy appears to have told Indymac how to cook their books and then pushed through an exception to make it legal. Who said government employees sit around doing nothing all day?

In the Name of Love: Dick Fuld, Former Lehman Brothers CEO sold his $13 million house on Florida's ritzy Jupiter Island to his wife for $100. Florida's bankruptcy laws are quite generous in protecting homes.

Big Brother Corporation: The Red Cross, Save the Children, Care International, Oxfam, and 10 other British charities wanted to broadcast an appeal to raise funds for humanitarian relief in Gaza, to rebuild the schools, hospitals and homes destroyed by Israel. The BBC told them to go away.

Bio Fuel: Kenya has 10 million people facing famine, while elsewhere in East and Central Africa another 25 million face starvation, due to poor rains during the growing season and rising global food prices.

Emphasis: In December existing houses sold at a 4.74 million per year rate, an increase of 6.5% over November's downwardly adjusted number. The stock market loved it and went up! The average price dropped 15.3% from the prior year, but the market went up! This was the largest price decline on record, but the market went up! Wonder if it will go up some more when the December figure is downwardly adjusted?

SAR #9026

We need to stop confusing asset bubbles with economic growth.

Jesse

Stimulation: Now that they've suddenly discovered that giving over a trillion in gifts and guarantees to Wall Street hasn't done any good, the GOP is now explaining that "At the end of the day, government can't solve this problem." Well, at least not a GOP-led government.

Alice in the Trading Pit: Oil Traders searched for logic in a market that seemed to defy it, soaring 6% on a government report that inventories had grown and demand weakened, and by Friday had largely given up. Maybe Simmons is right that plummeting prices were not driven by a significant decline in global demand.

If Only : On the heels of the Satyam fraud, the Price Waterhouse Auditors who could see no evil can now see the inside of a jail cell.

Great Unwashed: Hansen and the rest of the science fiction peddling 'researchers' can keep whistling in the wind. No one's listening. 44% of US voters do not buy it. Of 20 things to worry about, Global Warming comes in last. Of course this is the same bunch that believe in angels, UFOs, the free market system and Iraq's part in 9/11, while rejecting evolution, the Big Bang or the idea that the Earth goes around the Sun. Republicans all.

Hit Me Again: Pelosi claims the TARP bailout is working so well we'll have to give them another helping beyond the $700 billion. Especially those that contribute to her PAC.

Multiple Choice: In December Merrill Lynch managed to lose $15 billion. Maybe it was all in the wrist, as they marked bad loans to market values. Maybe a lot of it was CDS losses. Maybe, just maybe, they were simply god-awful at playing the stock market game.

Simple Statistics: If unemployment was figured today as it was in 1929, the rate would be 17.5%. Aren't you glad they changed the way they count?

Bleeding Heart Liberal: The incoming US intelligence chief says that "Torture is not moral, is not legal, is not effective." He also is going to stop the unlawful surveillance of Americans. The US is becoming a nation of weak-kneed constitution readers.

Headlines: Obama, please stop appeasing the Republicans to pass your stimulus package! McCain says 'No.'

At the Track: Mish keeps proclaiming that those who fear great big helpings of inflation one day soon aren't smart enough to come in out of the rain. I hope he's right about that. I also hope he's wrong about deflation. A curse on both their houses.

Political Energy: Even though they grow a lot of corn in Illinois, if biofuels are the answer, someone's asking the wrong question. Or fibbing about the answers..

Tweed Ring: Someone's guilty. Gotta be. Someone else. First it was the trailer trash sub-primers. Then it was the over-extended middle class. Or the unions. Or the oil producers. Or speculators and short-sellers. Someone, anyone! Thank goodness we've found the Chinese to blame or else Wall Street might have had to look in the mirror.

Faking It: Substitution and adulteration in foodstuffs is more common than you think, but scallops really are scallops.

Denial: It's a good thing we're not running out of oil and there is no global warming, because alternative energy solutions are "deader than hell". Or so Pickens said when his mamoth 2,700-turbine wind farm lost its financing.

Shadowland: There seems to be even more excess housing inventory gumming up the market than current statistics indicate, thanks to a wave of foreclosures that has yet to hit the market. I'd wondered; in my own neighborhood we have 5 'unlisted' foreclosures, three of them over 8 months empty with no For Sale sign yet.

Elah: Quite a few blogsters hope that Obama's regulatory efforts are code-named David, because on first glance they don't seem big enough for the job.

Evidence: The death rate in older, undisturbed, stable stands of coniferous trees has doubled. In the Pacific Northwest it took only 17 years for the death rate to double. In California the doubling took 25 years. The data applies to all kinds, sizes, ages and locations of trees. The increase in tree mortality has risen in parallel with a rise in average temperature of about 1ºC in the last 30 years. The culprits are thought to be longer summer droughts and an increase in beetles that thrive in the warmer climate.

Porn O'Graph: We've only not just begun.

SAR #9024/Weekender

Do the riots come before or after a country defaults on its loans?

Free At Last: Imagine, a government of openness, not of fear and hiding. "Starting today,” Mr. Obama said, “every agency and department should know that this administration stands on the side not of those who seek to withhold information, but those who seek to make it known.”

The Wedding Ritual: US forces sent missiles into two houses in Pakistan. Sort of a reverse Welcome Wagon gift from Obama.

Shared Sacrifice: When a politician speaks of a shared sacrifice, he (or she) means that the taxpayers are going to share the expense. When a whole country speaks of having to share the sacrifice, they mean that other countries are going to share the costs - be it sending troops into combat or buying US debt. The Treasury hopes that China, Japan and Saudi Arabia re-enlist real soon.

Slash and Burn: Some of California's largest farms are slashing their planting this spring, for fear the California drought will burn up their crops. First to go, lettuce, next tomatoes. Hold the toast.

Bad and Worse: The US is second only to China in CO2 output. But if the US had to take responsibility for the CO2 produced outside the country in making stuff for the American consumer, it's output of poisons would exceed China's by 20%. But that would entail the US consumer taking responsibility...

Words of One Syllable: When Republicans tried to explain to the President what they would and would not accept in a stimulus package, he explained to them "I won."

Three Card Monte: Who'll believe that the US can maintain a strong dollar long enough to pay back the next $2 trillion, and the trillions after that? Do we have captive lenders - those who've lent us so much they can't afford to see us fail? Better hope so.

You Are There: Here's a marvelous 2 minute video of the Wilkins Ice Shelf in its last days.

Hard Truths: All together now: The bailouts have not worked. Not in the US, nor Britain, nor Germany... More is not going to change this. Untried but worth discussing is triage: leave the solvent banks alone, let most fail and nationalize the rest.

Egyptian River: Like Tim O'Reilly, every time I drag a little AGW item into the light here I get angry responses from those in deep denial. I'm not going to stop, so I suggest that those unpersuaded by 30 years of scientific research take the self-centered view that if global climate change has even a 10% chance of happening, we should try to prevent it. Changing to a sustainable world will not hurt us and may keep us from some very bad things.

On Again, Off Again: As expected, President Obama struck down the Bush revived Clinton canned Reagan initiated ban on letting anyone who could spell abortion get near any federal funding either here or abroad.

All Together Now When? Leaders often do things on the international stage that make no sense until you realize they have to do certain things to stay in power at home. Roubini says coordinated global economic action is impossible because each country must put its own citizens and its own industries first.

Selfish: Bolivia, which has over half the world supply of lithium, doesn't want to just lay back and let Mega Corp International come in, scrape up the ore and scamper off with the big bucks. Bolivia and its dirty rotten socialist leader think they are going to share in the profits. Silly people; just wait until the Marines get done in Afghanistan.

PR/News: A 'market research' firm that is constantly finding the newest thing to invest in (Chinese Fast Food! Singapore Tourism!) claims that by 2030 the US will generate 917 billion KWh with nuclear power plants. Today's US nuclear power capacity is just over 100 billion. Better get going.

Today's Word: Seigniorage. In days of yore the king would shave a little bit off each gold or silver coin. Not much, but it all adds up. Debasing of the coin of the realm hasn't gone away just because the gold coins have stopped circulating.

Cautionary Tale: Global oil production entered a plateau in 2005 and hasn't grown since. Not in three years, some of which had wickedly high oil prices. Even if TARP II and Stimulus 3.6 is the theoretically right antidote, the continuing physical and geological limits on oil production will trip the economy again and again.

Don't Look Now: If NSA is grabbing all the electronic bits about you, all of you, all the time, 24/7 - and they are - what are they doing with all that info? Turning it into intelligence by finding connections. They've got some terribly clever people working for them who are not particularly introspective.

Porn O'Graph: The hills and valleys growing in China.

SAR #9023

We brought this on ourselves.

First Light: Hours after taking office, President Obama ordered a halt to the show trials at Guantanamo, Guantanamo is to be closed within a year and the CIA directed end 'enhanced' interrogations. Could we also do away with Homemade Security or at least persuade it that Americans have rights again? And at least rename ICE? Let us be the land of the brave again, not the fortress of the fearful.

Re-Runs: By the numbers: new unemployment claims = 768,858, "adjusted" to 589,000. 2008's unadjusted was 415,149. Etc.

Silliness Continues: Our troubles are caused by the irrational belief that an economy can be based on unending debt. The new economic team looks a lot like the old Clinton bunch - who were less than innocent in getting us here. And the map out leads to more and more debt, both private and governmental. Who's going to finance $2 to $3 trillion in US debt this year? You are, of course. Through inflation.

House That Again? December building permits 10% below November and only half of last year's data. Starts were down 15% from November and 45% below December 2007.

Ah, Me First! Greed's poster child John Thain accelerated Merrill Lynch's executive bonus schedule so he could get his bonus and leave just before Bank of America took over. Under the TARP of darkness, as it were.

Call Waiting: Turns out you weren't being paranoid, NSA was tapping your phone all along. And your email. And your internet use. By the way, your cell phone has a GPS tracking chip in it, too. Bush is gone, what happens next?

Return of the Prodigal: Now that George is back in Texas, the fight against teaching evolution in Texas schools is heating up again.

Self Interest: A survey of over 3,000 earth scientists, 90% of them PhDs, found that 82% agreed that human activity was largely responsible for global warming. Respondent patterns also showed that self-interest outweighs education in that only 47% of petroleum geologists considered global warming to be man-made. Climatologists - who actually study the subject - were nearly unanimous (97%) that human activity was a major contributor to global warming.

Better Late Than... Peace grows out of the barrel of a gun. This, while hardly news, needs thinking about once in a while.

"It Don't Come Easy": Confidence in the US banking system ebbs ever lower as the 3 largest US banks sink into the mire. Losses at BoA, Citi, and JPMorgan will continue well into 2010. The ongoing infusions (those we know about and - given past events - those we don't) have failed. Trust doesn't seem for sale at any price.

Finding Fault: A previously unkonwn fault line in eastern Arkansas could trigger a magnitude 7 earthquake. One day, but probably not tomorrow.

Career Change: Former KGB agent Alexander Lebedev is leaving the Dark Side and becoming the publisher of the London Daily Standard. Adding a frisson to the story is the paper in question, The Standard, which has long been owned by ultra conservative Lord Rothemere.

Porn O'Graph: Childhood in the Greatest Country on Earth.

SAR #9022

Calling the bottom of the market is tricky; a 90% drop is an 80% drop followed by a loss of half of your investment.

Comprehensive Rescue Review: As in Yet Another Bailout. Geithner's testimony certainly suggested there are plans for further rescue efforts beyond those currently afoot. But this was in a Congressional hearing, so no actual facts were revealed.

Without Comment: "Riots in Iceland, Latvia and Bulgaria Are a Sign of Things to Come"

Swingtime: Some fear that debilitating deflation lies ahead. Some fear that paying for the stimuli will be inflationary. Some fear first the deflation, then the inflation. Some fear deflation then inflation, then deflation and then inflation. All fear.

Interesting, Very Interesting: The British government has only $61 billion in foreign reserves (less than Thailand!) and is talking about rescuing British banks with foreign liabilities of $4.4 trillion. Anybody got a pencil?

The New Civil Right: Has the time come for citizens to organize sit-ins and marches against building any more coal-fired generators? Maybe, but where will the electricity come from if not from burning coal? Who gets to sit in the cold, in the heat, in the dark while we try to replace the current infrastructure? Too much hope, not enough plan. The lifeguard business isn't getting any easier.

Deniers Lose Another One: Despite popular propaganda, Antarctica is getting warmer, not cooler.

Lilliputians: Global oil demand is expected to contract "sharply" this year, falling 430,000 mbd. That's a decline of one-half of one percent. 0.5% ! We're doomed! Forget about cheap gasoline, today's low oil price masks a looming energy crisis that could dwarf our current economic problems.

Paydirt: In yet another article debunking the idea of long term deflation is this: "I challenge anyone to show me when the consensus opinion was ever right in the long term." We all agree with that.

Environmental Stress: Economic collapse, lessening petroleum supplies and weather pattern disruptions caused by climate change will result in a global food shortage that will end in struggles and "survival of the fittest." Which assumes that those with the guns are the fittest.

Closing Time: Fixing the banking problem by following the Sweedish nationalization and re-sale model or the RTC goings on ignores the fact that the global financial environment was relatively healthy when these miracles were performed. But the light's dim, time's short, and she's not all that bad looking...

What If? If you think Roubini and Orlov are too optimistic, try Yudkowsky.

1958 Redux? With the return of science-based science and a newly minted respect for reality-based public undertakings, will there be a renewal of interest in science and engineering and a decline in B-school applications? Probably not, but while you're hoping for change, hope for this one.

Little Engine that Could: It's not ethanol, nor a fuel cell, but put an A123/Hymotion battery in a regular Prius, get 80+ mpg. The battery recharges from a regular 120v circuit and will last a decade. This has been an unpaid advertisement.

It's Supply and Demand: The market explainers keep talking about the drop in demand for petroleum as economies crash. But there's also a crash in investing to find and produce new supplies while the old supplies are dropping faster than demand. What if there's not enough oil available to fuel the recovery when the recovery finally gets here. Or isn't one scheduled?

Try It, You'll Like It: Please touch, fondle, caress the merchandise - 30 seconds and you've formed an attachment that will last at least as far as the check out.

No Money Down: Fiat is buying 35% of Chrysler without putting up any money now, or later. It will, however, pay the cost of re-tooling a Chrysler plant so it can make Fiats for the US market. Don't ask me; it's high finance,US taxpayers put up the money and Fiat pledges its reputation. This is called 'good will' when it's written off the balance sheet.

Porn O'Graph: For safety, bank on a parachute.

SAR #9021

Life is more than a shopping list.

Back to '29: America's house builders look forward to a further 29% decline in house prices this year, while house sales drop another 14%. The Portland Cement Association - the guys that pour the foundations - expect "another full two years almost before a significant gain,"

Capital Ideas: After losing 66% Monday, RBS lost another 70% Tuesday, and this is with more government support than any other institution in Great Britain. Without taxpayer money they, and most the rest of England, would have to close up shop by the end of the week. Makes Citi and BoA drops of less than 30% look downright attractive.

Big Brother Knows Best: Americans need single-payer universal health care and a plurality of Americans want it. But Americans are going to get laws forcing them to buy health insurance and continue to waste 1/3rd of their health care dollars on paperwork and profits to insurance companies.

The Plan: Obama's money men have but one goal - to return to those days of yesteryear. How? By re-inflating the housing bubble. Or else.

Giving Europe Gas: Having made clear the disadvantages of extending NATO membership to Ukraine, Russia has resumed sending natural gas to Europe. The added costs to Ukraine will cripple its economy and serve as a reminder of its dependence on Russia - and not just for energy.

Help, Help! GM is investing $1 billion in Brazil as a way of escaping its problems in the US. The money will come from the $13.4 billion in bailouts from the US taxpayer.

Mark-up: The DOE is buying 10 million barrels of crude for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at $51 a barrel. Yes, oil's only $35 a barrel, but this is the government and they've got a strategy.

Homework: The Treasury is asking the banks that got the largest helping from TARP to write a report detailing how much they've lent to businesses and consumers and how much they've invested in asset-backed securities. An outline is due by Friday and the completed paper by the end of the semester. Creative writing class, one expects.

Bad Moon: Roubini sees US credit system losses reaching $3.6 trillion as the US banking system enters effective insolvency as the economic downturn lasts another year or more.

How High is Up: The deficit - before the new stimulus and before the Son of TARP - is guesstimated to be $1.2 trillion. How much is that? It is more than the total the US owes both China and Japan. And we're going to borrow that from? China and Japan!

Do It Ourselves: Let's use the next $1 trillion to start our own bank. The People's USA Bank. Starting with $1 trillion in capitalization. Everybody gets a credit card, max rate 5%, max debt level 30% annual salary. The card would also serve to pay all medical expenses via the single-payer healthcare system. One 4% mortgage for a house costing no more than 3X annual earnings (verified by the IRS). Just like BofA and Citi , it'd be non-profit.

Trespassing: Remember that Pete Seeger's "This Land Is Your Land" was written as a protest against 'No Trespassing' signs. Then be advised that a video of Pete singing it was taken down from YouTube in about 6 hours. Seems the song belongs to HBO.

Breathing In, Breathing Out: Canada's million plus square miles of forests used to be champions of the struggle to control carbon dioxide. No more. Recent studies show that Canadian forests, stressed by insect damage and warming climate now release more CO2 than they sequester.

You Are There: An interesting photo gallery of then and now. Yes, propaganda, but with a kernel of truth?

Advertisement : The Wilkins Ice Shelf, a gigantic piece of Antarctic ice, is now held in place by a a strip of ice that has thinned from 100 km wide to just 500 meters in the last 50 years. Its collapse into the sea will not raise sea levels much - for it is already floating in the water - but its demise will be another visible testament to the effects of global warming.

Like a Rock: Mexican oil production fell 9% to 2.8 mbd in 2008. That's 300,000 barrels a day that used to come to the US. It is also $20 billion less income for the Mexican government.

Porn O'Graph: Unemployment Continues.

SAR #9020

Fade to black.

Latest Myth: The Fed wants to assure us that paying less than face value but more than fair value for banks bad assets will bring the zombies back to life at no cost to the taxpayer. Doesn't make any sense. Let's try the right way

Spanish Steps: S&P views Ireland 'negatively', has warned Portugal on its debt and downgraded Spain's sovereign debt to AA+ putting it equal to Belgium. That's higher than the A- doled out to Greece last week and . How long before these downgrades - or a sovereign default - test the strength of the euro?

Fish in a Barrel: Lease a tanker, fill it with cheap oil, sell a forward contract on the oil and sail around in circles with a guaranteed profit. Sound easy? Sound too easy? How sure are you that the guy you sold it to is going to be around come March or June? Maybe you should think this over, Morgan Stanley did. Nice use of the bailout money.

Good Questions: Who wrote the computer programs that made it possible for Madoff to run a ten-year Ponzi scheme? How many of his staff had to know what was going on? how many of his kids? Where's the posse?

New Record Holder: In the last year, the Royal Bank of of Scotland managed to lose £28 billion, which is 2% of the UK GDP. Its balance sheet is nearly as large as the entire country's GDP. In two years RBS dropped from a £75 billion valuation to less than £4.5 billion while burning through a £32 billion infusion from the taxpayers. Makes Citigroup look solvent. In both cases their respective governments have no choice but to prop them up, trying to prevent total collapse. Wish them luck.

Default: As long as the US does not default on the bonds Social Security holds, Social Security is fully funded until 2049. Any cut in Social Security before then would entail the government reneging on its obligations. If so the bonds helb by Rubin, Paulson et all had better be the first to go. China's another story.

Mud in your Eye: Pollution in the skies over Europe have been reduced by half in the last 30 years, but its absence has led to more solar warming. As pollution levels fall - say by stopping the use of coal - will the drop in CO2 make up for solarization's increase global warming? No.

Instant Re-Pray: Goldman Sachs - the folks who predicted $200 a barrel last summer and $30 a barrel in December now anticipate "a swift and violent rebound” in energy prices in late 2009. I forecast an ongoing swift and violent round of new forecasts by folks who make money selling you ideas.

Always Vigilante: Extra juridical executions at the rate of one a day are promised for Juarez, where civil society has long since spiraled out of control.

Usual Suspect: Soaring autism rates are "most likely" due to exposure to pesticides, household chemicals, and viruses. Changes in diagnosis and genetic causes, previously suspected, cannot account for the rapid and widespread increase in the condition. The suspect is of average height and weight and has no distinguishing marks.

Either/Or: If Citi is too big to fail, and it is, and too big to succeed without massive money infusions from the government, then let's just admit it has to be nationalized. Move along, nothing to see here.

Stimulating: The economy does not need a stimulus. It needs a burial. Instead of spending trillions on the institutions that got us here, the focus should be on transforming the American economy into a renewably powered series of local economies. The unfettered quest for perpetual growth to profit the few hasn't worked out too well.

Porn O'Graph: The heat is on.

SAR #9019

What shall we name our new country?

Nürnberg: Rep Conyers wants a criminal investigation of Bush's war of aggression. Pelosi said there may have been violations of the law that cannot be ignored. It's a start.

Good Cop Bad Cop Bank: The First National Bad Bank of the United States, Incorportated. They're printing up the signs right now. The idea is so simple it seems unresistable: Put all the rotten assets in one place and watch them very closely. give lots of money to the banks and don't watch them at all. Sounds like a plan.

Secret Handshake: BofA says it was tied down and forced to buy Merrill Lynch and the Treasury made a secret promise to make up any losses BofA incurred.

Masked Bawling: Behind the 'seasonally adjusted' employment data hides this: Last week 952,151 folks became unemployed. The week before it was 726,000. That's 1.5 million in two weeks. I'd adjust the seasonings a whole bunch too.

Fireside Chat: Now's a good time to huddle by the fire and talk about global warming. All ten of the warmest years on record have happened in the last eleven years. Might be a trend.

What If: World oil production (the real stuff, crude and condensate- C&C) is still at 99.6% of the 74mbd that was pumped at $147 a barrel. Why? Especially when March, April, May contracts are much higher than today? (1) They need the money now, as much as they can get - even at $38 a barrel. (2) They can sell all they can pump today at today's prices and can pump no more - they're maxed out. Come April or May or whenever, no matter what the price they can only pump the 73.8 mbd. Or less.

Schedule: Jim Hansen's finally made it as clear as possible. We've got to stop burning coal. Not tomorrow, today. Before we drown.

Contrarian: Unless all prior experience with hyperactive printing presses has been misleading, sooner or later we're going to have a lot of inflation - unless Bernanke and the Treasury take exactly the right steps at precisely the right moment. Place your bets.

Take a Number: Seems like lots of folks are worried that China might lose its appetite for US Treasuries. Better they should worry about China's loss of appetite, period.

Popularity: While the Pentagon warns that Mexico and Pakistan may dissolve in the next few years, economists fear that Eastern Europe may react violently to the coming depression in the next few months. Bulgaria, Romania, Lithuania, Latvia are joining Greece in expressing dismay and discontent. Meanwhile the Gulf oil states are facing immense custs in income which may translate into civil unrest there, too.

Inquiring Minds: How Far Can You Thrown an Economist? Not far enough.

Now You Sea It, Now You Don't: The Sea of Japan has undergone a sudden collapse in the amount of CO2 it absorbs. If the oceans start cutting back on their absorption of CO2, the CO2 levels in the air will go up. Then the temperature. Pretty simple, the way that works.

Humor? Krugman's wife, showing more prescience than he, suggests sacrificing a few bankers — central bankers, investment bankers, whatever. Worth a shot.

Self-hoisting Petard: Ken Blackwell (fondly remembered for crushing Ohio's Democratic voters and delivering Bush the 2004 election), now wants to be chairman of the RNC. His stump speech: "Rescue, schmescue. If it might undermine Republicans' electoral strategies, I'm against it." The goal isn't to improve the economy; the goal is to make the GOP look good.

Old Hands: Muscovites, who've been down this road a couple of times before, are hoarding stockpiles of cash - dollars if they can, rubles if they must.

3 Year Lease: Chrysler got another $1.5 billion last week. It still needs another $3 billion. Maybe next month.

Hold Your Nose and Jump: Financiers say England has "not weeks but days" to avoid a long and deep depression. "My concern is that people don't fully understand the dangers lurking out there." Says Peter Spencer, chief economic advisor to the Ernst & Young ITEM Club.

Wrong: Ohio's governor, faced with declining income and sales tax revenues, wants employees to take a wage cut. Which will result in less income to tax and less spending to tax and may lead to the governor being unemployed. Good idea.

Porn O'Graph: Demanding Destruction? The Up, down and Up again of US Oil consumption.

SAR #9017/Weekender

The children who survive will remember.

Gift Horse: We the Taxpayers gave BofA $138 billion - $1000 from each household in the US - that is more than two and a half times BofA's entire capitalization. So W-the-T not only own 100% of BofA, but we own it twice over! The rest of the rant is pretty good, too.

Maybe, Just Maybe: First we get a promise of Justice based on law, now it's to be a scientific approach to protecting the environment. If we get the politics out of climate studies it'll be a trifecta.

Roget's Revised: When the Treasury talks about the 'subsidy costs' of the TARP what they mean are the losses to the taxpayer. $1 out of $4 has been lost so far, but GMAC's stuff was a 3 out of 4 loss and AIG's 50%.

What If: Much of the new stimulus should go into infrastructure for small, locally oriented economies based on renewable energy and local agriculture - just in case this is not a cyclical downturn but the effect of peak oil bringing the old system to an end. An insurance policy that does no harm and may pay large rewards.

Two'fer: Nearly 2% of all US housing units were in some stage of foreclosure at some time during 2008. We'll get better at it this year.

Women and Children First: California is going to freeze $2 billion in tax refunds, $300 million in grants to the needy, aged, blind and disabled and, of course, nickel and dime children.

Opinions: Over 60% of Americans didn't and still don't want to give any money to financial institutions, and certainly not any more money. This is the same bunch of people who thought invading Iraq was a bad idea, so what do they know?

Definition: The Fed's report on industrial production showed that "consumer durable goods continue to show weakness", falling 21% year-over-year. Note the finely tuned use of the word 'weakness'.

Rhetorical Headline: Is the Bailout Constitutional? No. And how is it that only now the Republicans discover the executive branch has too much power?

The Good, The Bad and The Banks: Plot summary: The investor class gets the Good Bank . The taxpayers get the Bad bank with all the worthless paper. The Ministry of Truth proclaims another capitalist victory.

Real Rates: Where's the pain? Unemployment among college grads, 3.3%. Those over 25, 6%, Construction workers, 13%. Black males under 26, not reported.

A Little Knowledge: Oil is at $36 ! Well, West Texas intermediate (WTI/Feb) is at $36. But that's for oil sitting at Cushing, Oklahoma, a place from which you can't ship it anywhere except the local refineries. The price of oil is $45 a barrel in Northern Europe (Brent/Feb), $48 a barrel in Asia (Tapis), $46 in Dubai and so on. The price of oil depends on where it is and what (light, heavy, sweet, sour) it is. But most of it costs a lot more than the surplus stuff sitting around the desert in Oklahoma.

Hurry up and Wait: 34 Offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico are still shut-in after the Gastave and Ike passed through. Don't need 'em right now anyway.

Casual Statistics: In each of America's wars from WWII through Desert Storm, pretty close to 12% of American combat dead were killed by 'friendly fire.' In Iraq and Afghanistan that number is 0.78%. That is statistically improbable, even if you don't include Pat Tillman.

Cutting Edge: A list of job cuts announced in one 24 hour period - they're not all big companies, but that's the point.

Curious Minds: Wonder why French cement maker Lafarge wants to sell off its North American operations now, just as Obama is going to pave the country with new infrastructure projects? Got any explanations that don't involve words starting with "D"?

Porn O'Graph: Death of the salesmen.

SAR #9016

The problem isn't to grow the economy,

it's to keep it from vanishing.

Beware of Falling Prices: Economists are afraid you'll have to pay less for stuff, which is not a Good Thing for Wall Street even though it may sound good at first.

Bankmail: Did BofA actually threaten to cripple the US markets if Paulson didn't give them more money? Or were they promised the $140 billion earlier and had to wait for Paulson's second helping to get it and that was the rush for the $350 billion? And after Citi gets their share, how much will be left for Obama's boys to play with?

Geography Lesson: George Bush's United States has declared it will extend its "sovereign rights" to most of the oil and mineral wealth in the Arctic, without much reference to actual borders.

Click Your Heels: Mexico claims it will reverse its dramatic 10% decline in production and reach 3 million barrels a day by 2015, while Cantarell continues to crash. New wells, gas injections, new exploration, and wishfull thinking will be employed in this effort.

Staffing Costs: Did Citi pay a $800 million signing bonus to get Pandit?

Two-Edged Sword: Countries that profited most from exports during the boom are falling fastest now: China, Russia, OPEC, Germany. Ah, Globalization and it's discontents.

Scary Maps: Even assuming CO2 emissions lower than today's levels, researchers predict that it is very likely (90% chance) that the temperate parts of the world will, by 2080, regularly have seasonal temperatures that are higher than the current record highs. This will cause a significant drop in agricultural outputs. It will also be much hotter in the tropics and subtropics, where the lows routinely will be higher than today's highs.

Explaining the Bush Years: 14 percent of U.S. adults cannot read.

Buzzword: Memo to staff: Please cease using emotion laden terms such as recession or bankruptcy or anything starting with "D". 'Retrenchment' is a perfectly useful word of indeterminate meaning.

Carpentry: JPMorgan's CEO says the worst is yet to come and Nouriel Roubini agrees, saying things will worsen until late 2009 and the recovery in 2010 and 11 will be puny.

Crash Diet: The European parliament voted to restrict the use of 22 pesticides in growing food. Next week they will consider legislation against pests, insects and diseases that damage crops.

Morning After: Would we be any worse off if Hank and Ben hadn't gone though all that money? For the size of the headache and the mess in the living room, shouldn't we have had a better time?

Shades of Green: Following Congress' desire that the bailout funds be used to build cars for the future, GM is making a $56 thousand 6.0-liter V8 Tahoe that will get 20 mpg. It will only be available in the deep Forest Green.

Easy Answers : Solar will save the day! Clean, efficient, practically free. Except it takes huge amounts of fossil fuels producing large amounts of greenhouse gases to make and move them, they're full of toxic stuff, and they don't last all that long. So then we have to go back to the fossil fuels. Not to mention the petroleum based plastics...

Quelle Surprise: According to the IEA and several million chilly citizens, "Russia has loss its status as a reliable gas supplier to Europe."

Porn O'Graph: Retailing the real retail tale.

SAR #9015

Don't talk to me about conventional wisdom,

I've been to conventions.

Dividend and Conquer: HSBC paid out $10 billion in dividends in 2007. It is likely to cut the dividend by 50% this year as it tries to raise $30 billion in capital. Is that the same as borrowing money to pay dividends? Isn't that what Madoff was doing?

Pelican: America is putting more of itself into Bank of America. Billions more. It's one of the healthy ones, remember. We're just helping it swallow Merrill Lynch because it's tried to gobble up more than it can afford. Yes, the money was supposed to be loaned out - it will be, haven't you heard of margin accounts?

Not Quite the News: Obama's stimulus is not big enough, it needs to be doubled and then redoubled, which means the US will run immense deficits from here to the horizon. More than a few think the US will not be able to do this.

Kick 'em Again: Yet another new report indicates that the IPCC's estimate of a 30 cm sea level rise by 2100 is woefully understated. This one explains that the ice sheets are melting much faster than predicted by the IPCC and that the seas will rise about 1 meter by the end of the century.

Usual Suspect: Russia is suggesting that Ukrainian interference with natural gas shipments to Europe might be traceable to the White House, much as was George's Georgian adventure last fall. Cui Bono?

Excess capacity: First it was bulk cargo shipping that crashed 95% or so. Now its containerized freight. Things are so bad that half-full ships are offering to haul containers for the cost of fuel alone. Last minute cruise vacations?

Stately Pensions: State run pension funds have lost so much they are cutting promises to new-hires. More seriously, they may have to start cutting payments to retirees. Things are far worse at the municipal level where the good ole boys have been promising themselves and their nephews ridiculous pensions for years. We the taxpayers will bail them out because a whole lot of us are them.

Same Old Same Old : After giving private contractors $722 million to restore oil production facilities in Iraq, auditors report that Iraqi oil production facilities need $1 billion for restoration.

Political Georgeography: Almost Ex-President Bush has warned the Canadians that they do not own the Northwest Passage, nor the natural resources off their northern coastline, flatly rejecting Canada's plan to expand its economic and military presence there. Bush wants to protect the fragile region and its natural resources from terrorists.

Freeze in the Dark: The old Texas blessing on the Yankees seems to have moved to Serbia, where the lack of gas for heating is likely to collapse the electric grid as people plug in their toasters.

Fat Lady Singing: JP Morgan Chase is the last of the big banks to get out of the wholesale lending business, saying "We believe that our customers are best served when a mortgage officer works directly with them" and implying they don't trust those other people - the mortgage brokers. Imagine.

Buy the Numbers: There are now about 11.1 million people out of a job, about 50% more than a year ago. Putting 4 million of them back to work is better than nothing.

You Bet Your Life: The life insurance racket wants government regulators to give them "more flexibility" in pricing illiquid assets. What they mean is they want to be able to value assets at whatever they wish. State regulators will go along because they have no choice.

Sub-prime Explained: Wall Street quants and derivative developers, who drink more than seven cups of coffee a day, tend to hallucinate.

Porn O'Graphs: Retail data, wholesale.

SAR #9014

We are the last of the affluent, innocent no more.

Defined: Reorganization, verb., the act of selling off profitable parts of a company in order to focus on keeping access to government handouts. See also "Citibank".

Cliff Notes: Bernanke gave a long, important speech at the London School of Economics in which her reviewed the steps he had taken to date, their effect and the possible steps to be taken in the future. Summary: Nothing is working so we're going to try some other stuff.

Without a Net: Top ten housebuilder Beazer Homes reports a net 53% decline in last quarter's house sales and a 56% decrease in orders for new houses.

Rush To Judgment Disbursement: The second-half TARP release seems to be needed in a Very Big Hurry. After all Bush is out and Obama in just a week from now. What could happen, other than the collapse of Citi, between now and then that would require that much money? Oh. Right.

Morning After Pill: Ben's in the backseat, whispering in the economy's ear, "Don't worry, I know how to stop inflation if it gets started."

One Forward, Two Back: Obama's plan may find some $20 billion in 'shovel-ready' projects, but that doesn't replace the over $60 billion decline in non-residential construction, much less all the folks who aren't building houses anymore. How about slum-prevention by hiring ex-financial advisors to take sledgehammers to empty malls and such?

Now and Then: With easy money to be made just by storing oil for a couple of months, why aren't the oil producers storing the oil right where it is, in the ground? Best answer is that they are all desperate for cash, some cash, any cash. Think about that, then imagine a world where the major oil producing countries collapse.

Dropouts Wanted: Some of those who transferred balances to Chase for a low rate on the transfers are being hit with a $10 a month fee just for having a the card. The minimum payment has also been doubled. Apparently Chase does not want cardholders who can actually read or do simple math.

Porn O'Graphs: Paul Kedrosky's current collection, "Strong slowdown in _____ "

Deja Vu All Over Again: Sleazy sub-prime lenders are taking advantage of the government-backed home loan market to ply their predatory trade once more, and the government is unable to prevent this. Talk about recycling.

Nuked: New nuclear plants will carry a cost of 25 to 30 cents per kilowatt-hour - three times the current rate and higher than either solar or wind generated power. The industry will seek governmental support for this vital companion to ethanol.

Tell Me True: Of all the reasons not to release the second $350 billion the best is that they don't know what they did with the first $350,000,000,000.00 of my money.

The Good Old Daze: Bernanke now says the discarded original purpose of TARP - to buy bad assets from the banks at inflated prices - is a Good Idea that should be followed through on even though Paulson gave away disbursed $350 billion following some other theory that hasn't worked. Banks still suspect each other of lying because they know they are.

Debatable: The question is, "Does Capitalism Need Adjustment?" You have 30 seconds to come up for a defense of the negative, starting now. Time's up.

Porn O'Graph: US Non-Farm payrolls - a drought.

SAR #9013

I got debts that no honest man can pay

Bruce Springsteen, Atlantic City.

Justice! Federal prosecutors have convened a grand jury to investigate Roger Clemens for perjury when he denied taking performance enhancing drugs. Mr. Madoff, meanwhile, remains comfortably at home after admitting taking $50 billion.

Cup and Lip: Last October Sony forecast a $2 billion profit, Toshiba 1.5. Analysts now expect Sony operations to lose $1 billion, Toshiba $2 billion. Back in the USA, Alcoa lost $1.2 billion.

Bottom Unemployment Line: Even if Obama's stimulus plans work out as expected, it is anticipated that unemployment will stay around 7.5% for three years, house prices will continue to fall and people will still have more debt than they can ever pay back.

Speculating on Speculation: 60 Minutes told America that speculators manipulated the futures market in crude oil to drive the price up to $147 last summer. Next week: How speculators drove the spot price of iron ore to $196 a ton in February and let it collapse to $62 in October - without a futures market in the ore. Supply and demand connected to the global recession had nothing to do with it, nor the fluctuating value of the dollar, nor margin calls...

For there to be a Future: If (a) you understood some of what's wrong, (b) had some reasonable ideas of where we need go, (c) thought someone might listen, (d) wrote clearly and well and (e) turned out a list of suggestions for Obama -you might produce something like this.

Markets Explained: Big secret: for every transaction there's a buyer and a seller, and both are speculating.

Brother's Keepers: Just because the US can't imagine life without foreigners supporting its continued financial existence does not mean that those foreigners are not running out of reserves to recycle into Treasuries. Or just tired of throwing their money away.

Stamping Out Hunger: Enrollment in the Food Stamp program increased 14% last month from 2007, while the program's cost increased by a third. The poor and hungry seem to be the only production increase in recent US history.

Cheaper Than Coffee: The IEA says that while the world's thirst for oil may dip a bit next year, global demand will keep growing so that by 2015 we will need an second Saudi Arabia to meet the increase in demand, and a third to offset the 6.7% annual decline in production from existing fields. That's not going to happen for we are fresh out of Saudi Arabias. Crude oil provides 36% of the world's energy and nearly 90% of all transportation. And soon that's not going to happen either.

Illegals: Most of the 15,000 prisoners US forces are holding in Iraq have never been charged with a crime and under Iraqi law - which is now the law in Iraq, despite desperate US efforts - should be released.

We're Only Just Begun: Roubini is recycling last year's prognostications and adding ever more dire adjectives. "We are still only in the early stages of this crisis." My apprehensions would make Roubini look pollyannish.

Unforgiven? Isn't the global savings glut an illustration of some of the unspoken (and perhaps unspeakable) problems with unregulated free-market capitalism? 1) It works too well, 2) producing more stuff than can be consumed because 3) in search of lower costs it beggars the workers and thus its customers 4) while accumulating profits that fund riskier -and more questionable and non-productive - debts and investments and 5) because it is premised on perpetual expansion (exponential growth in a petri dish) it carries its own doom? Just asking.

Porn O'Graph: Export experts stumble and fall.

SAR #9012

Things that can't happen, are about to. - Mish

Seasoning: According to the Bureau of Lying Statistics, jobless claims dropped to 467,000 initial claims last week, seasonally adjusted. The actual number was 726,420 and continuing claims reached 5,316,124. Take a pinch of salt with the 'seasonal' adjustments.

Head of the Class: The number-one desire of people responding to Obama's "Open for Questions" webpage is that a Special Prosecutor (named Fitzgerald, preferably) be appointed to investigate the crimes of the Bush Administration, - including torture and warrantless wiretapping.

Seriously: By February, Saudi Arabia will lower its output to 7.7 million barrels a day, 300,000 barrels below the 8mbd target set by OPEC. This has nothing to do with the Israel's invasion of Gaza nor with peak oil. The Saudis said so.

TARP Tap: First Bush said he'd leave the second half of the tarp $700 billion for Obama to distribute. Then Obama said some of it should go to the people, not Wall Street. Now Bush is planning on asking Congress for the money, vetoing their denial and letting Paulson have one last potlatch.

Changing Paradigm: Given that there are too many of us using too much of the earth's declining resources, What's the plan?

Manifests' Destiny: Last fall the Congress approved the sale of 1,000 bunker-buster missiles to Israel. They began arriving in Israel in early Decemer and in Gaza this month. Now the US is shipping 3,000 tons of ammunition to Israel later this month - 325 standard 20 foot containers. They'll be delivered this month, too.

BoogeyMan: There is no monster under the bed and Social Security is not going away.

Speeding Bullet: Production from Mexico's Cantarell, the world’s third-largest oilfield, fell 33% in the last year after falling 21% the previous year. In the early 2000's Cantarell pumped 2 mbd. It is now down to 860,000 barrels a day. Mexico's net exports were 1.9 mbd in 2004 and will be 750,000 barrels a day in 2009. And about zero in 2012.

Inquiring Mind: It's reasonably easy to make my kids tell me what they want $100 for - and to have them show me the sneakers, too. It's even easier to read the credit card statement and see where the real money went. How is this different than accounting for $350 billion in TARP funds?

Strains: Fisherman are blockading an oil terminal in Mexico, workers are demanding the government provide electricity to restart 500 factories in Nepal, 800 schools in Kyrgyzstan are closed because there is no electricity to heat them, fuel shortages have forced a resumption of "load shedding" in Uganda , and Bulgaria - among others - is shivering for lack of natural gas from Russia.

Pick a Number, Any Number: Candidate Obama was going to create a million jobs. Last week his economic stimulus would produce 2.5 million jobs. Now the same plan - with businesses siphoning off a big chunk of the money - will "save and create" 4.1 million jobs in a couple of years. Meanwhile, the country lost 2.6 million jobs in 2008, over 1.5 million jobs in the last three months and real unemployment rate is about 15%.

What Heat? Scientists keep refining how certain they are (90% or more) that very bad things are going to happen to the environment. The rest of us keep ignoring them.

The Devil Made Me... The reason Citibank is backing Sen. Durban's proposal to let bankruptcy judges 'cram down' mortgage principals is that (1) the number of cases that the courts can handle is very small and (2) a judge's order will keep investors in bad mortgage backed securities from coming after Citi for their pound of flesh.

Anarchy Anyone? Large areas of Mexico are expected to soon slip into anarchy as the level of drug violence increases and the government's budge dwindles with Cantarell's output. In anticipation, the US is preparing to use "military law enforcement" to contain the bloodshed to the south side of the Rio Grande. Posse Passé Comitatus, for sure.

Porn O'Graph: Unemployments sadististics. (Note: SGS = Shadow Government Statistics)

SAR #9010/Weekender

“When the truth is replaced by silence, the silence is a lie.” Yevgeny Yevtushenko

Bargains Galore? George Stephanopoulos asked "...are you really talking about over the course of your presidency some kind of grand bargain? That you have tax reform, healthcare reform, entitlement reform including Social Security and Medicare, where everybody in the country is going to have to sacrifice something, accept change for the greater good?" To which our only president-elect, Barak Obama said, "Yes."

By the Numbers: Unemployment reached 7.2% last month, and that's the rosy view, skewed by the Birth/Death Adjustment ; U-6 (what's known as the real number) is at 13.5%. The US lost more than half a million jobs, the biggest drop since WWII, and those that have jobs work only 33.3 hours a week.

What Happens Then? "There will, before long, be a global dumping of US dollar assets, including US government assets." Is the US solvent? No, does it matter? Doesn't seem to.

Friends: When the banks and the government get together to solve a problem, it is a good bet that the banks are going to benefit. Are mortgage modifications designed to (a) benefit the home owner or (b) massage the banks balance sheets?

Faith Based: Of course economics is faith based. Always has been. You didn't think it was a science like astrology, did you? Oh, wait! It is a science like astrology!

Lazarus: Obama - who apparently has been a right wing Republican all along - now says overhauling Social Security and Medicare will be "a central part" of his efforts. Social Security merely needs to tax all of the income not just the first $102,000; so much for that one. Medicare is hopeless and needs replacement with a single payer system. How much healthcare could we buy with the trillions of dollars we've given Wall Street, or wasted in the sands?

Quote: "We did not get where we are overnight, and we will not repair ourselves in a year either." Not quite Dante Alighieri , but Jesse's got the general idea.

Collective Bargain: I'm not sure how this works, because the UAW wasn't part of the contract, but one of the terms of the GM/Chrysler bailout was the government's insistence that if the union goes on strike the loan becomes due. Remember Harry Truman and the steel workers and calling out the troops? Is the National Guard going to build cars?

Going Green: Barak is certainly bringing 'green' awareness to Washington - he's recycling Clinton era hacks back into power so the parade can continue.

America First : US law requires USAID foodstuffs be purchased from American sources. It's not so much foreign aid as indirect support for agribusiness. And it is costly, inefficient, and slow. And people die, waiting.

What's a fish? The fate of the ocean is looking very bad. Man-made CO2 enters the oceans, making them acidic, which dooms shrimp, lobster, and other shelled creatures. And krill, the base of the marine food chain. China's going to increase its coal burning by 30%, which won't help. But the real problem is that it may be too late to solve this problem.

Quote: "This looks an awful lot like the beginning of a second Great Depression." Paul Krugman

European Unity: Unemployment is surging in Spain, car sales in Italy, Britain and Spain have crashed, Germany's exports fell 10.6% in November. Overall, the Eurobloc's GDP is expected to fall 3% this year, matching 1930's decline. What happens when the Eurozone begins to fall apart from social stress?

Way-Back Machine: A fool-yourself time killer - guess how far 'back' is, as in "how long will it take to get back to where you were before all the money went away."

False Positives : House sales are up, but much of the increase in sales is simply speculators hoping to make a quick profit. These houses will return to the market soon, and not at a profit.

Party Trick: Shell is going to turn water into oil. Specifically, Shell has bought the rights to 375 cubic feet per second of the Yampa river's flow, which it plans to use in turning oil shale into petroleum. The Yampa is a tributary of the Colorado River, which supplies much of the arid West's water.

Porn O'Graph: Here's a chart amusingly called "Job Growth"

SAR #9009

Welcome to the consequences of industrial growth.

Richard Heinberg

Collateral: The UN reports that food aid shipments to Gaza were halted after Israel attacked a convoy killing 2 Red Cross workers. The UN also reported that at least 257 Palestinian children have been killed during Israel's invasion.

Wish List: Obama's stimulus is Bush's tax plan. Been there; it does not work. When will Democrats stop being afraid of Republicans? Reducing help to the typical American family to for more of what brought us here - another $310 billion Republican tax cut just to get them to play nice - is cowardly. The GOP does not play nice, it plays politics. And plays to win. And wins. So much for change.

Just Asking: What if Russia isn't 'withholding' gas? What if it just can't meet the demand?

Mirror Mirror: Economic historians Rogoff and Reinhart advise that housing will not bottom until 2012 or later, unemployment will soar over 11%, the market will resemble a doormat for quite some time and we're not as smart as we think we are.

XII Sales Data: Williams Sonoma -24%, A&F -24%, Saks -20%, Gap -14%, Sears -13%, Limited -10%, and Wal-Mart + 1.7%. Don't worry about the numbers, the recession is all in your mind.

Circles: The Fed has started buying mortgage-backed securities from Fannie and Freddie - the first of some $600 billion. They've hired outside firms to do the actual purchases, in order to drive up the cost and provide profits to the financial sector. All this to make mortgages more affordable. Lower prices are not an option.

Bullies: Background, foreground and ground under the heel - or US, Them & The Others in Gaza. Another fine Jeff Huber essay; if you didn't read it yesterday, read it now.

New Shoes: Obama's warning that the Bush bailouts will lead to "trillion-dollar deficits for years to come." That's the optimistic view. First the Treasury will try to get the money for free, then it'll raise interest rates, to keep China interested, then it'll turn on the printing presses.

Yada Yada Yada: Economists are still debating whether markets are rational or irrational, which is why most of us ignore the noise coming from that corner.

Connections: Yes, it's getting cold in Europe, and more expensive to stay warm. But later on, the gas delivery cuts may drive up the price of food, for nitrogen fertilizers are made from natural gas. Reducing fertilizer making to let people heat houses is noble, but it will drive up the price of fertilizer, and thus food, later on. You do have a dog in this fight after all.

Norse Myth: Norway, feeding the peak oil myth, said its production would fall 9.7% this year, the 9th year of continuing production declines. Between 2009 and 2013 Norway, now the world’s fifth-largest oil exporter, expects "significantly reduced oil production."

Money for Free: Fed Funds are below 0.25%, Ten Year Treasuries are 2.5%, Yet most corporations pay over 8% to borrow. Money's free to the government; the real economy doesn't seem to be important to the recovery.

All Wet: A report by the US agency for coordination of climate change research predicts a sea level rise nearing 4 feet by 2100. The last IPCC projection had been for a rise of only 1.5 feet, but global ice melting, as detected by satellites, indicates the rise will be far more severe and much quicker than previously thought. Rising Pacific sea levels are expected to increase migration difficulties for Australia, while port cities around the globe, including NY and Boston, will face flooding.

Point Missed: There's a discussion going on over the question of making money from other people's misery. Of course it's immoral, but we're talking capitalism here so morality has nothing to do with it.

Porn O'Graph: Down the stairs, out the door, get a job! Employment 2008.

SAR #9008

As war is to diplomacy, politics is to economics.

Ten Cent Apples: The coming budget deficit will be $1.2 trillion - the previous record is Bush's $455 billion. And the $1.2 trillion does not include the $1 trillion 'stimulus' nor the $1 trillion bailout for the states. So the coming budget deficit will be well over $3 trillion. And will stay over $1 trillion "for years". Or forever. Or until the collapse of the dollar. Whichever comes first.

A Quote: "Taiwan’s exports slumped by a record 41.9 percent in December " Also: "Orders placed with U.S. factories in November fell twice as much as forecast "

Discipline: In a break with tradition, OPEC members have cut oil supplies for 4 months in a row and missed meeting their goal of 27.3 mbd by only 60,000 barrels a day.

Heroes, Lack Of: Hamas had the bad taste to beat America's puppet in what most of the world accepted as an especially fair election (for one in which the USA was heavily involved), so Cheney told Bush to let Israel attack Hamas. No one in this or the next administration is earning merit badges over this. If the US cuts off the money, Israel will stop using the jets, helicopters, tanks and starvation against a population that has no defenses.

Friend of Bernie's: Ramalinga Raju, chair of Satyam Computer Services confessed to cooking the company's books to prop up the company's stock price. Don't relax yet, there'll be more.

Shocking Stuffers: ADP says 693,000 American employees got Christmas cards saying "You job has been eliminated. Happy New Year."

Save Me: The GOP will ensure the stimulus plan includes a 'buy American' caveat. Protectionism is said to have contributed to the depth and length of the Depression. The Republicans also demand that there be identifiable and quantifiable benefits from every penny - a burden of proof never imposed on the Bush tax cuts.

Pilot Lights: Europe used to get a lot of natural gas from Russia, but that was way back in December. Some suspect this is just a bunch of hoods running a protection racket, others blame it on teaching capitalism to the Russians. Six of one...

This is not the Good News: Soothsayer Meridith Whitney, channeling Anne Oakley, says we ain't seen nothing yet. Deleveraging has just begun, the world economy is just starting down the slope, and there's more to come.

Car Wars: GM is getting another helping on January 16th, a second $5.6 billion. And Chrysler's been a bank all these years, didn't you know?

Danke: Germany tried to auction off €6billion in 10 year notes, the first step in an attempt to raise record amounts. 'Tried' is the operative word. And Germany is in far better shape than the US. Great Britain also fears 'overwhelming' the market with its needs. What about all the smaller nations, states and cities that need to raise money? How much interest will it take? What happens when they can't raise the money?

When Down is Up: Faced with "massive decreases in demand" (or so the MSM keeps saying) US refinery output was up 332kbd last week, gasoline production rose as did distillate fuel production, while crude oil imports were up 1.2 mbd. Over the last month total crude oil imports are down 210 kbd - that's about 1% of US daily demand and perhaps 1/4th of 1% of global demand.

The Bigger They Are: Bank of America is getting out of its big investment in the China Construction Bank. RBS (Royal Bank of Scotland) and UBS (Switzerland) are selling their Bank of China holdings. The shine is off the apple chopsticks.

Future Bright! Free marketeers are sure the government rescue of the free market system will work and that no-one will have to pay for it - well, the workers, but we're all capitalists here - and the Dow will go Wow! If, that is. If the despised government can quash rising unemployment, if the interfering government can stop the increase in bankruptcies, if the incompetent government can slow the on-rushing default of prime mortgages and if the inattentive regulators do not put most of Wall Street in jail for their recent frauds and thefts.

The Check's in the Mail : Remember the old days, when welfare cheats rode around in Cadillacs? (I know they didn't, really, but it builds to the joke.) Well, they still do. Down Wall Street. Under the Obama version of the GOP wish list, companies can write off current losses against taxes paid in the previous 5 years. That Citi is about the only company with losses that large is neither here nor there, right Mr. Rubin?

Porn O'Graph: Look, Ma, I found the TARP!

[It may help to read comment#2 before looking at the chart!]

SAR #9007

“One would be wise not to push too far the conceit that we are smarter than our predecessors.” - Rogoff & Reinhart

Waiting for Godot: Until workers begin buying stuff the economy is not going to pick up. And until workers pay their debts down - or have them forgiven - they are not able to buy stuff for they have no credit and little income. So we're all sitting here, waiting. It could be a long time, pull up a chair.

Moral, Legal, Common: Part of the new stimulus program will give judges the right to change contracts. The history of Anglo-Saxon law is based on the sanctity of contracts; the contract between the ruler and the subject, contracts between traders, contracts that convey property, even marriage is a contract. There is a very long, slowly developed canon of laws supported by precedent, common sense and moral deliberation. Let's toss that all away and force investors to lose money - even though half the populace doesn't think it's a good idea. It's bound to strengthen the politicians economy.

Guarding the Guards: In a former life I was in the security business. When asked to provide armed guards, I always asked for a list of the folks whose death the client's insurance covered. I'm not in that business any more. There's at least one BART officer who isn't either.

Another Day Another Dollar Billion: Fifteen billion, actually. From Paulson to his retirement fund at Citibank, $20 billion, plus big chunks to PNC Financial and Fifth Third Bankcorp to help them digest the banks they've gobbled up.

Buzz Off: Terrorists are hiding out in the swamps, training insects to carry plague or anthrax or tiny nuclear weapons into our cities Be afraid, please, please, be afraid! I liked it better when they were going to build nuclear bombs and drive them around in rental trucks spreading clouds of anthrax..

Takes One to Know One: The GOP insists that the stimulus not be rushed through Congress like TARP was. And the Patriot Act. They also insist that the funds be accountable and targeted, unlike TARP. And that the programs have definite endpoints, unlike Iraq. And they want most of it to go to business, just like always.

On the Square: The Chinese government anticipates "a period of mass incidents" as million of workers lose their jobs, university graduates remain unemployed, and economic growth falters. The government is expected to encourage domestic tranquility and is reviewing film from Tiananmen Square .

In the Shade: China's LDK Solar declined 14% on weaker sales and reported that a planned increase in polysilicon production will be delayed. Does a similar fate await the billion dollar Hemlock Semiconductor project in Tennessee?

Einer Hat Es Befohlen: Turns out David Lereah, for all the time he was at the National Association of Realors, had a gun to his head and was forced to make all those silly predictions. He was, he said, just doing his job.

He Said Then The Other Guy Said: Ukrainian reports that Gazprom sent but 92 million cubic meters of gas to Europe on Tuesday, down from about 300 mcm previously. Russia will, of course, claim that they have not reduced gas intended for Europe and that the shortfall is due to Ukrainian siphoning. It's good to see the old traditions are being kept up. Happy New Year

All in Favor say Aye! "The current downturn is likely to be far longer and deeper than the "garden-variety" recession in which GDP bounces back quickly". It's becoming the popular view, so be careful.

Seeing is Believing: There are any number of charts comparing now to then and now to average and they're pretty to look at. Print them out, shuffle and deal and see who gets the best hand.

Porn O'Graph: Balancing Act.

SAR #9006

The poor have too much debt and the rich have too much money. What could we possibly do about that?

Oh the Blessed Joy! Reports say the new Obama GOP administration will lower taxes on businesses and offer a tax cut equal to $500 a year for individuals and $1,000 for couples. I'm gonna put my $10 a week into investments. Lottery tickets are looking good right now. Or a six pack.

Vocabulary: Today's word is 'genocide' and you'll find it in the evening news, under 'Gaza'.

Death Penalty: From Ann Coulter's new book: "In any event, divorced mothers should be called "divorced mothers," not "single mothers." We also have a term for the youngsters involved: "the children of divorce," or as I call them, "future strippers." Ah, the reasoned voice of the Republican right.

Final Score: GM 31%, Ford 32.4%, Honda 35%, Toyota 37%, Chrysler 53%

Get Your Bets Down: The oil industry anticipates four major projects to begin production in 2009: Akpo (Nigeria deep offshore), West Don & SW Don (North Sea), Tahiti field (Gulf of Mexico) and Frade (deep offshore Brazil). We listed them so you'll know about them when their postponements are announced.

Quiz: Why did the larger portion of those paid to predict and explain the economy miss the biggest event of their lifetimes? 1) it's the herd 2) economics is pretty much guesswork 3) Alan Greenspan was a bully 4) I like my job.

Remedial Math: Ignorance of the power of exponential growth is the root of all evil. Here: Get a checkerboard and put one penny on the first square, two on the second, four on the third and keep doubling it for every square. After you run out of pennies, go get a petri dish....

Cliff Notes: Common myths about climate change: 1) Scientists are divided & the facts are not in. Wrong. There are few if any contemporary fields in which the agreement among scientists is so pervasive and widespread. The debate is over. 2) There's no rush, nothing's going to happen until after 2050 or even 2100. Wrong. It is happening now all around the world and the odds of abrupt climate change increases daily. 3) Some people in Africa and a few islands may suffer, but it'll be beneficial to most of the world. Wrong. Really, really wrong. 4) We can reverse it if some people buy hybrid cars and China uses clean coal like we do. Oh, that's so wrong... We're going over the cliff, take notes.

Whither Oil? The price of oil, over a longer term than CNBC and the WSJ are interested in, depends on whether there will be enough to go around. There won't.

Hubris: Before you sign on to back this or that approach to "solving" the credit crunch / economic slowdown / free market / globalization problem(s), pause for a moment and realize that the whole system is too damned big and too damned complex for any reasonable expectation of success. Even if you're Ben Bernanke. Especially if you're Ben Bernanke.

Paradise Lost: Some folks need a place to rest now and are selling back burial plots, a sign the economy's getting pretty grave.

Three Monkeys: Israel, fearing it could not control the press as well as the US has in Iraq and Afghanistan, simply copied Bush's arrogance and excluded the press from observing the assaults and talking to those involved, in hopes there will be no unauthorized truth telling this time. Ah, but their cause is just and their hearts pure.

Predictions: Every pundit with a soapbox or a piece of curb to shout from keeps echoing how bad it is: downturn, recession, worst recession ever, almost as bad as the Great Depression, it's the Greater Depression. Not yet it's not. Calm down. It may one day, possibly even one day soon, but right now most of us are getting up, going to work and being paid. Sufficient unto the day.... So far it's just been an excuse for WallStreet to steal a whole lot of money from the taxpayers. Sic 'em.

Porn O'Graph: Going Up while going Down?

SAR #9005

Is Big Oil still manipulating the markets?

Ups and Downs: Friday the market continued its January jump, even while US manufacturing reached its lowest level in over 60 years. But we're a service economy, right?

It's A Gas: Is this Russia/Ukraine spat a market dispute, an ongoing scam on the West, or simply a bunch of criminals and politicians arguing about how big a cut they're going to get?

Behind the Curtain: Lawyers for the innocent millionaires fleeced by Bernie Madoff have turned to the government looking for a handout. It'll be interesting to see if they cite collusion and conspiracy on the part of various governmental figures to bolster thier case. Le affaire Madoff is not what it appears. The 20 year scam required a large and knowing support staff. Federal regulators' blindness to the ongoing crime does not pass the laugh test. As hard as Madoff worked at stealing the money, a lot more people are working harder to make sure he takes the blame alone.

Pre-emptive Strike: Is the Israeli "preventive incursion" into Gaza simply a way to prevent the new administration from establishing better relationships with Muslim nations?

Suspicion: Saudi Arabia is expected to take the lead in cutting production. Given doubts about the status of their reserves, is this leadership or convenient cover?

Team Spirit: Ford declined to enlist in the all-volunteer car corps, so the Treasury is letting GM, via GMAC, give 0% 60 month loans to unemployed folks with credit scores so low they don't qualify for day old pizza. Turns out it was the sort of offer Dearborn shouldn't have refused.

Tide Keeps Rolling On: Despite commands by President Zadari for the shortages of electrical power and natural gas to end, the shortages continue. The populace is not amused.

Six of One: Reports suggest that cutting world-wide soot emissions would slow climate change because the soot darkens the snowfields and absorbs heat. On the other hand, soot in the atmosphere blocks incoming sunlight. Airplane contrails have the same blessing/curse aspects.

Gas Money: Customers claim they are wasting the money not spent on $4 gasoline on groceries. Or savings. No statistics were provided to back up these virtuous claims, although lottery ticket sales have leveled off.

Last Minute Shopping: Getting in some last minute payoffs, the Bush administration, ignoring the advice of two federal agencies and the pleas of the governor, has ordered that 2.6 million acres of obnoxious, ugly, huggable trees would be removed from federal lands in Oregon.

Fulcrum: Alternative energy sources are not free. True, the sunshine is there for the taking and the wind blows without charge. But they must be captured using equipment manufactured using coal, oil, natural gas and electricity. Once installed, their maintenance, repair and eventual replacement depend upon fossil energy. Read the fine print.

Penny Saved: Oregon wants to tax drivers based on miles driven instead of gasoline burned. What have they got against hybrids?

20 Questions: There is no accurate data on how much oil there is in the ground, how much anybody could or does pump, nor any real data on how much gets sold or at what price. The front month price flops around unrealistically pretending to reflect supply and lack of demand, but no one knows enough to pass judgment.

Quote: "A quarter of all British families will have no disposable income in 2009." And this differs from America how?

SAR #9003/Weekender

The idea of Wal-Mart Nation is not as scary as Flea Market Nation

On Schedule: Russia is accusing the Ukraine of siphoning off gas intended for Europe - as planned by both sides. This will force the EU to underwrite Ukrainian gas usage again this winter. Follow the bouncing ball.

Here's a TIP: The US Treasury will use "extreme discretion" in secretly buying worthless paper from troubled financial institutions (such as $300 billion from Citi in Nov) because (1) it hasn't any money to do this with, (2) it hasn't any authorization from Congress to do this, and (3) letting the public know what it was doing would be embarrassing because (4) it's illegal.

Ante Up: If spending another trillion dollars will solve our problems, wouldn't spending two trillion make us even better? Oh, wait. We're giving that trillion to the states.

Culture Shock: The of Friends of Bernie are reduced to selling their artwork off to pay for lawyers to sue Madoff and the SEC. Ought to be some good bargains at the auctions this spring.

Past as Prologue: Massive injections of liquidity have previously lead to insane bouts of inflation, but it's different this time. It's always "different this time", until it's not.

Scale: Before we start a war over the resources in the Arctic, let's remember that the USGS estimate is just that, an estimate - which at this point is pretty much an optimistic guess. And that optimism sees just 90 billion barrels of oil - not quite a 3 year supply. No matter what you were told, Virginia, there still is no Santa Clause.

Damned Numbers: Reports claim that the world's oil reserves increased 10,5 billion barrels last year. Great, that's an increase of 0.8% - one third of what we used. So now all we have to do is cut our use by 2/3rds.

Bank R US: Citibank has been nationalized - at least to the point where Uncle Sam controls who gets to ride on the company jet, how much egg nog to buy for the holiday party and who gets how much of a bonus. Can they do something about my Visa bill?

Resolution: Memo to self: Feel more angst for insurance companies during 2009.

Don't Know: The reason Paulson hasn't told Bloomberg and FOX where the TARP funds went and what collateral was taken in return is that the Treasury finds it "challenging" (their word) given the amount of money dispensed and the number of institutions which have or may have or might one day receive funding...

Let's Try This! The tinkering gene is starting to lobby for funding to undertake world-wide experiments aimed at screwing up the environment even worse - in the name of saving us from ourselves.

Consider the Sources: The economy will turn up by summer with unemployment peaking at 8%. That's what a majority of profession forecasters employed by big banks, corporations and thier trade associations say. Just because they didn't see any of this coming and have called "bottom" six times in the last 9 months doesn't mean they might not be right this time.

Preventive Prevention: The Department of Homemade Security is working on a machine that will look you in the eye and predict if you are going to do something bad one day. Sort of a detector of future lies. They say "it looks very promising". Looks like I'll be staying home.

Pigs Fly! Berkshire Hathaway lost 32% in value last year. I actually beat Warren! Only by a couple of percent, but I'd have done better if my wife hadn't found my hiding spot.

Gunfight at the OK Coral: A sudden and dramatic decline in the growth rate of corals making up the Great Barrier Reef is "unprecedented in at least the past 400 years." Decalcification. It is caused by the increasing acidification of the oceans which is caused by the increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere which hasn't been accepted by Big Coal as a cause of all these little problems.

Amnesia: While US car sales fell 37% in November, hybrid auto sales dropped 53% as the US customer lined up to line up at the pump again real soon.

Bottom Ahoy! The common man - by that I mean anyone too poor to have been bankrupted by Bernie - withdrew a massive $320 billion out of his mutual funds in 2008. When the commoners start running for the hills is a good time for the wily to invest. You first.

Porn O'Graph: 'Delinquents' use to be kids in rolled up T-shirts.

SAR #9002

This is not a test.

Y2K: A few years late, the computer/clock monster struck Microsoft's Zune media players on 12/31/08. Microsoft has assured the public that this is an unadvertised feature for which there is no charge. Fixing the feature depends on your use of Outlook Express, which has its own problems..

Epitaph: "I consider myself a casualty, one of the many casualties of the war on terror." Alberto Gonzales.

Civilization To Collapse! The global demand for oil will plummet - that's what the headlines read. The FT says it will "plummet" Nope. Nearly all the transport systems in the world run on petroleum. Nearly all the food in the world is dependent on petroleum both directly and indirectly. Global requirements for petroleum may decrease slightly, but cars, planes, and ships are not going to stop moving and people are quite fond of eating. Get a grip, the price of oil has fallen way too far and will return to at least cover the cost of finding and producing it - and that's more than today's 6 cents a cup.

Dead Doctrines: Anybody still believe in either the "economic man" or the "efficient market" theories? Why?

Peace In Our Time: The Good News is that the civilian body count in Iraq was down in 2008. The Bad News is that it was only down to 25 civilian deaths a day. The really bad news is that this got Petraeus good reviews.

London Calling: The US media is about as unthinkingly pro-Jerusalem as the Pentagon and State Department. Different perspectives exist, questioning the efficacy of keeping food and medicine from Gaza's children as a way to secure peace.

Past as Prologue: In a less than joyful report based on analysis of 800 years of data, economists Reinhart and Rogoff conclude, "the recent lull in sovereign defaults is likely to come to an end."

Serial Killer: In 2008 those on both sides of the subprime mortgage business got pretty well slaughtered. In 2009 regular folks with regular mortgages will be the targets. It doesn't get better, it doesn't get worse, it just keeps on keeping on.

Porn O'Graph: Employing the employment data.

SAR #9001

If the government does not take care of the people,eventually the people will take care of the government.

Casualties: The Hatfields have casually killed at least 400 McCoys and wounded another 1500 of 'em. Hamas' ability to govern is reportedly "seriously impaired", as is what little remained of Israel's moral authority. Given its record in Iraq, the US stands mute.

Enough: "The total cost of sending a single soldier to fight in Iraq or Afghanistan is about $775,000 per year." Tell me again about the vital national interest in Afghanistan, and at what price per barrel Iraq becomes a break-even project.

Just Numbers: By April over 2,000 malls are expected to close, and the shuttering of 200,000 stores is predicted for 2009. Impossible? About 160,000 went under in 2008. One quarter of all stores are facing financial distress, as are 95% of customers.

Carnival: AIG is propositioning the little red headed girl, again. "Just once more, please, pretty please. Let's renegotiate just one more. You liked it, I know you did..." What's a poor girl to do, once she's lost her reputation?

Clarity: The median price of a house in California in May, 2007 was $484,000. The median price of a house in California in November, 2008 - eighteen months later - is $258,000. That's a 46% decrease in the median price. Remember, trends start in California.

Path Integration: That's finding your way home when you don't have a GPS. Solar orientation, electromagnetism, odor trails and such. If you're a fiddler crab, you count the length of each step, sum them all up, and when it's time to go home you simply deduct the length of each step, counting down to zero.

Emperor's Clothing: The experts and their media puppets keep muttering that credit, more credit, is the solution to the economic bust, that the problem is a lack of trust. Damnit, when are these folks going to realize the problem is too much debt, most of it the stinky bad un-repayable kind. Until that debt is repaid or written off and we start living on what we produce, we're not going to get to Bountiful.

Cheer Up: The October Case-Shiller only seems terrible. After all, the index is an average of prices over the last three months and thus reflects sales negotiated about 6 weeks earlier. All of which means today's numbers are worse. Much worse. Horrific.

Peace Effort: If the Palestinians want Israel to stop dropping bombs on them and crushing their houses with tanks, they must stack all their weapons in a huge pile and all their clothes in another and stand naked and mute while Israel decides which of them to kill. So says Bush, on behalf of the American people - who were not asked.

Ownership Society: As you suspected all along, Wall Street gets the profits, the workers get the losses, Greenspan gets to wring his hands and Bush moves to Highland Park.

Put Your Hands on the Hood: Historically the spread between the best corporate AA non-financial bonds and the Fed Funds target is about 20 basis points. Today the spread is 615 basis points. In your best grown-up voice tell me what sort of future would make this reasonable.

Christmas Club: Investors have pulled $32 billion from their hedge funds last month. Think how much it would have been if many funds didn't have the "you can't get your money back" clause.