SAR # 8200

Secretly, late at night, don't you suspect
that Malthus was right?

Over the Rainbow: USB, Lehman Brothers, and Deutsche Bank all claim the S&P will gain the most in 26 years during the second half of 2008. Before you get too excited, stop and reflect on how well UBS and Lehman's have been doing of late.

Good News, Bad News: The good news is that this is not a financial crisis. The good news is that a recession is not the worst possible outcome. You don't want to know the bad news.

Fair's Not Fair: FAS rule 157 - the mark-to-market rule - was great when the mathmagicians invented CDOs that were worth more than the mortgages they were based on. Now that the CDOs are worth less, often far less, than the underlying mortgages, rule 157 is "problematic" Does this dress make me look fat?

Quoted: "The first two of the four indictable offenses at Nuremberg were: 1. Participation in a common plan or conspiracy for the accomplishment of crime against peace. and 2. Planning, initiating and waging wars of aggression and other crimes against peace. One hopes most senior US military officers are aware of this fact."

Here's a TIPS: Treasury Inflation Protected Securities don't have a chance as long as they are tied to the US governments deceitful version of inflation.

Choice of Concerns: Energy investment banker Matt Simmons says that by 2015 the worry isn't that we may produce 60 million barrels of oil a day, but that we will only be able to produce 40. “We are living in an unsustainable society. If we don't change we are just going to start fighting one another... So let's just start assuming the worst and plan for it.”

The Three Big Lies: The check's in the mail. I'm from the government and I'm here to help. Saudi Arabia can produce 12 million barrels a day of crude oil for the next 20 years.

Lose/Loose: In one of mankind's rare acts of cooperation, the ozone hole over the Antarctic is finally beginning to subside. As the hole recovers to pre-1969 levels towards the end of this century it will cause air temperatures to rise about 9º C, enough to begin melting. No more fire, the flood next time...

Leaning Tower: If my neighbor's $400,000 mortgage is converted to a $250,000 fixed rate 30 year loan, at no cost to him, why should I keep paying my on my overpriced now underwater mortgage that I have no equity in it? I'd better walk away; buy the same thing down the block for less. That's how Congress is going to save the neighborhood.

SAR # 8199

It wasn’t incompetence after all; they planed this!

On Being Prepared: Demitri Orlov, who lived through the Russian collapse and rebirth, suggests that most Americans cannot imagine life without money. He suggests some thought be given to this possibility. Soon.

Confusing Facts: While importing over 60% of its crude oil, the US oil industry is exporting 1.6 million barrels a day of refined petroleum products - a 30% increase from a year ago. That's twice as much as the EIA estimates could ever be pumped from ANWR. So let's start drilling so big oil can export even more.

Prior Restraint: Under a Bush proposal, a factory farm could get a permit uncer the Clean SWter Act by claiming they will not discharge animal waste into waterways. Once granted the permit the federal government could not check and see if they were violating the law. I'm going down to the police station and promising not to commit murder....

Tick Tock, Tick Tock: Delinquencies on home-equity lines of credit (HELOC) are on the rise, as are delinquent credit card accounts, as people tap any available source of funds to pay daily expenses. This is bad for the customers - what will they use to live on when the credit's gone? And it is terrible for banks - nearly 100% of HELOC defaults get written to zero.

Teeter Totter: According to the IMF if food and energy prices rise further, "some governments will be unable to feed people and at the same time maintain stability in their economy." Remember Maslov's hierarchy?

...Gone Tomorrow: Scientists have discovered that man's impact on the environment is driving endangered species to extinction 100 times faster than previously thought. Penguins and polar bears, among many others.