Tuesday, March 10, 2009

SAR #9069

Are you scared yet? Why not?

Downsized: Global financial assets (stocks, bonds, used bikes...) lost at least $50 trillion in 2008, an amount equal to an entire year's global output in goods and services.

Walks Like A... That stock markets are plunging worldwide, bankruptcies and plant closings are epidemic, yada, yada, yada -all pretty much parallel to the Great Depression - does not mean a depression is at hand. Underfoot, maybe, but the experts assure us we are depression proof. What experts? Oh, you know...

Planning: I have two plans for surviving the current economic crisis. One involves waiting for the government to do something right, the other involves waiting for Fed Ex to deliver the freeze-dried water. Later on I'm going shopping for a mattress cover suitable for stuffing.

Be Repaired: The FDIC is looking for a half-trillion taxpayer dollars to supplement its woefully inadequate fund for papering over bank failures. Either more, or bigger, or both.

The Biggest Ponzi: The problem is too much debt. Piling more and more debt on the system may keep the game going, but it will not solve the problem. The only "solution" is to let asset prices find their value. Summers and Geithner know that austerity is the right thing to do - they've forced it on enough developing countries in the name of salvation.

Run Silent, Run Deep: In 2008 foreign investors withdrew $1 trillion from UK banks - about 15% of their total deposits. Voting with their feet.

Good News, Bad News, Rinse and Repeat. Oil production has peaked. Nuclear power will rescue us. Oil supplies will fall far short of demand within the next 10 years. It only takes 8 years and a lot of investment to build a nuke. Investments of that size are not available right now.

Smile: Demetrius & the missus, creating value, increasing GDP and rescuing the economy.

Collateral Damage: Texas is preparing to fend off violent spillover from the ongoing fight between Mexico's 130,000 soldiers and the drug cartels 100,000 heavily armed troops. Eventually, the struggle between the government and the drug lords - coupled with a collapsing economy due to oil depletion - will lead to Mexico becoming a failed state.

Headline Only: We Are Breeding Ourselves to Extinction

Pattern Recognition: Syria's original oil in place was about 24 billion barrels. About 30% of this was recoverable. 4.5 billion have been produced. Syria has passed peak production and will be running out in a increasing rush. Drilling more wells and/or installing modern technology would only empty the reserves faster, it would not make any more oil. Here endeth the lesson.

For the Hell of It: The American Religious Identification Survey found that 15% of Americans did not identify themselves as religious. contrary to popular expectations, New England was found to be going to hell fastest, not San Francisco.

Climate of War : Even if the world can cut CO2 emissions 3% per year from 2015 to 2050, we've only a 50/50 chance of keeping the global average temperature rise to 2ºC. Scientists fear that if temperature rises beyond 2C, water supplies will fail, crop yields will decrease and the likelihood of resource wars will rapidly increase.


TulsaTime said...

Funny how, with all the exotic chemicals and compounds that we thought would pollute the planet and kill us all, it will wind up being good old, basic heat that does us in.

CKMichaelson said...

TT - It's not nice to fool with Mother Nature. It is interesting that we mostly have dodged the chlorofluorocarbons only to be waylaid by simple CO2. Intelligence is not working out to be an improvement, but maybe we're God's control group.

aitrader said...

Hiya Nooner,

Footprint data suggests that, based on current lifestyles, the sustainable population of the United Kingdom—the number of people the country could feed, fuel and support from its own biological capacity—is about 18 million. This means that in an age of extreme scarcity, some 43 million people in Great Britain would not be able to survive.

But based on stoneage lifestyles things are actually looking peachy. Hunting and gathering will be the new happy-hour replacements. I think I'll take out an ad:

Lonely hunter with own club seeks wife/cook to assist in gameskinning and berry gathering. Flintknapping, firestarting skills a plus. Cave drawn likeness available to serious respondents.

Anonymous said...

How come nobody ever talks about the carbon footprint of war? Will the Afghanistan-Pakistan war be subject to cap and trade?

CKMichaelson said...

Anony - Marvelous observation & comment. Promotable to the front page.