Monday, May 18, 2009

SAR #9138

When Obama promised change

I thought it would amount to more than 17 cents.

Horse's Mouth: Real US GDP decreased at an annual rate of 6.1 percent in the 1Q09, after falling at a 6.3% annual rate in 4Q08 In the fourth quarter, real GDP decreased 6.3 percent.

Task Master: Don't be fooled by the conversion of Rogoff and Roubini to the Goody Twoshoes school of economics, the US has started a 10-year decline and our living standards will never be the same. If you are not scared silly, you've not been paying attention.

Definition: With graduates flooding out of the colleges and universities with dim prospects for employment you might think that unemployment would increase. It won't. If you've never had a job, your are not counted as being unemployed. To U-3 and U-6 we to need a new category: U-Lose.

Takes One... Five Centuries after giving the world the Spanish Inquisition, the Spanish now are leading the campaign to expose the US inquisition to the world.

Précis: "Credit Card Defaults At Record Highs But Worst Is Yet To Come." Usual depressing details.

Genocide? No. Except Charles Krauthammer claims "Genocide is an impermissible evil. Except..." Apparently except when done the the US or Israel. Same, too, torture.

Onward Christian Soldiers: After the US invasion of Iraq, Bush's daily intelligence briefings from the Pentagon arrived with Top Secret covers bearing Biblical quotations, courtesy of Major General Shaffer, the Pentagon's Director of Proselytizaton Intelligence.

Spelling Bee: There are trillions of dollars worth of funny money hiding somewhere out there, nobody knows where Can you spell hyperinflation?

Fill in the Blank: A human being who was repeatedly tortured by the CIA until he provided the (false) information they were seeking, has died in a Libyan prison, having beaten himself to death while chained to a wall.

Sad Fact: The US cannot afford to pay higher interest rates. Much of this week's activity will flow from this fact. And this month, and this year.

Going Thru a Phase: S&P says the banking crisis is merely entering "a new phase" and that the crisis will last another 4 years. S&P said banks will have a tough time surviving absent a bigger capital cushion than regulators require.

Quit Playing Pretend: There never was a 'trust fund'; the government spends every penny it takes in, every year. Social Security is interchangeable with the Defense Department, except we don't have a special tax labeled "DoD". They are both costs and neither is going to go away. The government will either increase taxes, increase borrowing, or increase inflation. Social Security and the Defense Department are both going to be with us for as long as politicians want to be re-elected. End of story.

Charlie Wilson's Way: If what's good for GM is good for America, then the concern about the US going bankrupt seems well placed.

Form a Line: Every politician and every commentator who thinks that torture is acceptable under some set of circumstances should be required to undergo public waterboarding before making such pronouncements. Every time. And retroactive enforcement of this requirement would be a good idea, too.

Not News: "The IMF is hurting poor countries."

Things to Ban: There's so much to be incensed about... Obama's duplicity. Cheney's existence. Wall Street bailouts. But save room for AIPAC.

Porn O'Graph: Earning a bear market.


Anonymous said...

Re: Porn O'graph

Yeah, but stocks are cheap, right? Generational lows and all that.


CKMichaelson said...

RBM - Don't just sit there! The buying opportunity of the century is right now! Or not.

Best I can figure, the S&P 500 P/E ratio is only about 120!

kwark said...

RE: Task Master

"If the consumer isn't petrified, he or she is a damn fool." In my experience to date, there are one hell of a lot of damn fools wandering about. I have coworkers (still) that are BUYING HOUSES here in Ventura County - one of the more frothy of bubble markets in California! When I calmly ask if they aren't concerned about RE prices dropping further (much less about their job security) they look at me as if I've just grown a third eye and confidently state that RE is a good investment! OUCH, serves my right for asking. Maybe we ARE experiencing a great buying opportunity but at this stage of the game it looks more like the rose-colored glasses remain firmly in place.

fajensen said...

I am currently betting (options) that holders of stock are setting themselves up for a spanking-session they will not easily forget somewhere between june-august 2009 - there is a smell of imminent death in the air about this "market";-)

Danish banks keep extending credit to bankrupt speculators holding large, margined, positions in Danish businesses (most notoriously Molslinien and Parken Entertainment) the banks are obviously afraid to trigger more margin calls on each other - before they have unloaded the stock unto pension savers ... I am enjoying this.

Further, in 2010-2012 - if Pakistan, Egypt actually hold together that long with free money supplies dwindling and all - along will come another "recovery", inevitably followed by a nice crater when the Alt-A and Option-Arms begin to reset -> Default.

I see the idiot segment is out in force on all the investment boards so the top must be close.