SAR #9059/Weekender

If you are not getting yours, you are paying for theirs.

In the Mood: Moody's sees a global 15% default rate on all but the most highly rated bonds, rising to 19% in European bonds.

Home Grown: Every time you eat a tomato - especially that decorative bit of red on your hamburger - you have helped continue the virtual enslavement of the person who picked it. As usual, 'cheap and plentiful' - sneakers, dolls, clothing, tomatoes - has an unseen human cost.

Won't-drawal: In the next 19 months, American troops are withdrawing from Iraq. Except for the 50,000 that aren't. I've used the same approach to quitting smoking for the last 14 years.

OUCH! The US now acknowledges that 4Q08 GDP fell at an annual 6.2% rate, 60% worse than the initial guess of only 3.8%.

Sanity Patrol: The Administration intends to repeal the viciously silly Bush era rule that said the pharmacy clerk got to decide whether you could buy birth control pills or a condom.

Missing: Used house prices and sales are both falling, yet the inventory of existing houses on the market has also fallen. Part of this missing inventory may be REO houses banks are holding to auction off. The larger bunch must be folks who want to sell, but are holding on in hopes of higher prices. Wish 'em luck.

Contrarian: The economic slowdown is not reducing CO2 emissions. Even if the entire world's GDP fell by 7%, CO2 emissions would only decline about 0.24 ppm from the current nearly 3.0 ppm rate.

Circles: When (or more accurately, if) the global economy recovers, the demand for oil will increase and the oil supply will lag demand. This will cause the price of oil to rise sharply, which will increase the cost of goods and services, killing the revival. Repeat until exhausted.

Solidarity: The crowd chanted: "Government policy ... only burdens workers, the unemployed and the poor." This happened in: (a) Ireland, (b) Greece, (c) Latvia, (d) Detroit, or (e) all of the above.

Simple Subtraction: $162,000 - $125,000 = ?

No Better Time: It is always a good time to buy either real estate or equities, if you ask those in the business. Research analysts think S&P earnings growth will be over 20% in 2009. In that they also expect non-financials to tank 14% all the eggs seem to be in the basket labeled BofA, C, JPM & the like.

In Summation: From a Jimmy Rogers interview: ..We're going to have social unrest in much of the world. America won't be immune. ...in the past, when people have printed huge amounts of money or spent money they didn't have, it has led to higher inflation... that's certainly going to happen again this time.

Parking Problems: Toyota's distribution center for the Nordic countries is full, with 12,500 cars on hand. They've leased a ship and are parking 2,500 more on it, in hopes the Easter Bunny will buy them come spring.

Just In Time: A Shell oil platform in the Gulf of Mexico that was damaged by Hurricane Ike last year will resume operations in April, just in time for the 2009 hurricane season.

Porn O'Graph: What's happening in the margins?

SAR #9058

'Food fight' will soon have a more serious meaning.

Bamboozled: Citigroup has a $12 billion capitalization. It is going to let Uncle Sam buy 40% of that for $25 billion. You do the math.

Infaltion? What Inflation? Obama's 2009 FY budget is planned to be $1.75 trillion - over 12% of GDP, assuming GDP doesn't crash as expected. But fear not, fiscal discipline is just around the corner, where it has been hiding for 25 years.

Succinct Answer: Is this the bottom?

That Time of the Month: The Census Bureau reports that January's new house sales fell 48% YoY and have now fallen 78% from the peak. The price of a new house fell 13% from January 2008, and the inventory increased to a 13.3 month supply.

Bridal Shower: I wish we could meet to discuss this, / and perhaps you would help me / murder this woman on her cell phone.

Here's the Plan: The administration intends to give unlimited amounts of taxpayer dollars to the 19 largest banks. Treasury folks will go door to door asking the banks how much stress they feel, the banks will lie, and then the Feds will back up the truck and shovel dollars into the banks until they feel better. Or something like that.

Quoted: "Given the incompetence in Washington and on Wall Street, our best hope is that the rest of the world is even less competent and even in deeper trouble."

Crass Warfare: The rich claim that Obama's plan to tax the top 2% of Americans - those making over $250,000 - is the beginning of class warfare. The other 98% of Americans certainly hope so. The GOP claims this will pit the have-nots against the haves, instead of their plans, which have always pitted the haves against the have-nots.

Red Wagon: GM lost $9 billion in 4Q08, $31 billion for the whole year. They would have lost more, but sales were slow.

Congratulations: AIG, like Citi, BofA and the auto makers, is playing chicken with the public purse. They've figured out exactly how much is left in Fort Knox and they are going to ask for every penny of it, leaving the government insolvent. Which is what the neocons set out to accomplish. Game, set & match.

They Say, We Say: S&P Case-Shiller's National Home Price Index fell 18.2% in 4Q08. The Federal Housing Finance Agency said that prices fell only 8.2% in 4Q08. Buyers and sellers have their differences of opinion, too.

Getting High: There were 667,000 new unemployment claims last week, and 5.1 million workers are now on the continuing unemployment rolls - the highest number since 1982. Apologists point out that there are far more 2-worker families today than in 1982, suggesting that many of the unemployed are dilettants whose income is not needed by their families.

Double Entry: Energy Department auditors report that the department could not account for the quantities and locations of nuclear material at 37% of the facilities reviewed. Being accountants, they accounted for this material under the heading "unaccounted," which balanced the books nicely.

Misery: Kazakhstan is pulling out of the Central Asian power grid, claiming that Tajikistan was hogging power. The move caused blackouts and electricity rationing in Kyrgyzstan. Gazprom is promising to cut of gas supplies to Ukraine in early March if it doesn't come up with $400 million. Zambia has cut electricity to its copper mines by 15%. And in Pakistan, high oil prices are making the country's business uncompetitive in world markets and causing record inflation.

Silver Lining: The current 1900 mile long line for unemployment is a Good Thing, because the sooner people get through sponging off unemployment benefits, the sooner they'll accept whatever job they can find at whatever pittance they can get and the economy can recover. Gotta love those capitalists.

Porn O'Graph: Single Family Housing Ski Run.

SAR #9057

The banks are dead. Our children are not. Save the children.

Ilargi

Silly Boy: As proof that Obama's stimulus plan will not work, Republican Govenor Bobby Jindal was doubtful, saying "Those of us who lived through the way the Republican Bush Administration failed the people before and after Hurricane Katrina, we have our doubts."

Endangered Species: AIG needs another $60 billion this quarter and can't find anyone willing to buy its assets and it cannot repay any of the "loan" the government gave it earlier, so (a) the government will give it more money or (b) the government will give it more money.

Tense: Existing housing sales sucked, suck, and will suck. Carry on.

Great Expectations: According to the Corps of Engineers, over 100 levees in 16 states are so poorly maintained that it is "reasonable to expect" they will fail in the face of a major flood. Heck of a job.

Bigger Isn't Better: A massive 2 year study of both poles has revealed that the icecaps at both poles are melting faster than expected, and the Antarctic warming is "more widespread than was thought." Early indications of a change in ocean circulation were detected, which is expected to have " a dramatic impact on the global climate system." While Greenland's rate of ice loss is accelerating, large areas of permafrost are also melting and releasing larger quantities of carbon than anticipated.

Dead Heads: Poorly producing dairy cattle have always been culled and sent to the slaughter house. Milk prices have dropped so low that producing milk doesn't pay for the feed it takes to keep the cows, so they are being sent to the slaughter house in record numbers. Your next hamburger may be cheaper, but the milkshake will be getting pricier.

Proof: Having demonstrated conclusively that they cannot make the government work, Republicans have concluded that it cannot be done and refuse to consider any other explanation.

Eisenhowered: President Obama has put the Defense Department and the military-industrial complex on the defensive, breaking more than thirty years of silence to point out that billions, if not trillions of dollars have been wasted on good ole boy contracts for unneeded weaponry. And unneeded wars.

Dead Parrot: When sharks stop swimming, they drown. When banks stop lending, they stop earning money. But I repeat myself.

I'm With Him: Paul Krugman, who is no slouch at arcane economic stuff, admits he doesn't understand what Geithner's plans are for the banks, nor quite why any of them might work. He doesn't get it. I don't either, but I'm afraid we're all going to get it - in the pocketbook. Iceberg? What Iceberg?

Game Plan: First, a global economic meltdown resulting in falling wages, growing unemployment, bankruptcies, anger. Then, increased ethnic tensions, demonstrations, civic strife and riots. Next, border clashes and struggles for resources. Endgame, war?

Replay: About 4,000 years ago our ancestors cut down the forests of the Fertile Crescent and turned the whole region into a desert. It worked so well that Indonesia is trying to repeat the feat with the world's third largest rain forest before the Brazilians can with the Amazon.

Sit! Stay! Roll Over! The Republican National Committee now require total obedience to the party line. One unauthorized vote by those silly enough think for themselves will result in the GOP finding and funding primary opponents to challenge them. Play Dead!

SAR #9056

The dancing stops but the music plays on...

Quote: "It is time to for a real change. It is time to stop allowing the country to be held hostage by a relatively small number of financiers who have gamed the system. "

UP! The Market's Up! The overlord class is understandably encouraged by the news that the government is going to keep giving their failed banks and businesses taxpayer money without troubling to ask what they do with it, much less interfering with their operations.

Two from Column B: "Bernanke fears recession could extend to 2010" or "Stocks jump after Bernanke says recession may end."

Human Interest Story: About 10 million children under age 5 die every year, nearly 5 million from malnutrition. Global population is predicted to increase by 50% in the next 40 years. Food supplies are expected to fall 20% from today's levels as drought and other climate changes progress. Let's turn on the TV and watch the lady who had 8 more babies.

Short Form: To summarize the Chairman's Little Red Book, Ben's plan is to prop up the banks to the benefit of existing shareholders at the expense of taxpayers. Any questions?

Headline Only: "Japan Exports Fall By 46% in January, Producing Record Trade Deficit"

This-interested: PIMCO's Bill Gross says that Roubini, Dodd and Greenspan haven’t thought carefully enough about nationalizing BofA and Citi. Specifically, he didn't menton how much damage could be done to PIMCO's portfolio if they were nationalized.

Half Full, Half Empty? Shiller says whichever it is, we're going to drink the other half because housing prices have only fallen halfway so far.

Yes, But... : We all know that China's economic growth is responsible for much of the global increase in CO2 emissions. We decline to admit that China is warming the planet on our behalf, so we don't have to have those smelly factories and power plants around here.

Done Deal: Glaciers in Spain's Pyrenees have lost 90% of their ice in the last 100 years. Continuing global warming insures that they will completely disappear in a few decades. Most of Europe's glaciers are shrinking and overall have lost a quarter of their mass in less than 10 years.

Happy Days: According to Harvard economist Niall Ferguson, the collapse is far from being nearly over; it has just begun. Those who predict a recovery in the near term are simply lying to boost public confidence. Or to prevent violent political upheaval, which seems inevitable. Nassim Taleb agrees that the crisis will be more difficult to end than was the Great Depression.

The Neighbors: Mexico is losing its struggle to prevent large sections of the country - especially areas along the US border - from falling completely into the hands of the drug lords. The unequal struggle is being lost, and the violence is seeping into the US.

Check's In The Mail: House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer says there is no plan to nationalize banks. There's no plan to rescue them, either.

Changing Time: We tend to bad mouth "the big banks," but the big banks are just a front for their majority shareholders and debt-holders who are pulling for a rescue, not a take-over. But there are also major players who have bet on the failure of AIG, BofA and Citi - and they have a lot to gain in the failure of the system. I suspect that if those who are betting on failure are going lose even if they win - for when it all falls down, it will all fall down.

Bargain Bin: Citi claims to have 1.2 trillion in assets but has a street value of 12 billion. Fools, you can buy a $100 in assets for a dollar - don't just stand there!

Porn O'Graph: The declining decline, Shiller-Case version.

SAR #9055

The difference between the US and a banana republic is the bananas.

Shovel Ready: The administration keeps repeating that it stands firmly behind the banking system.

Lies, Damned Lies and... "The U.S. government stands firmly behind the banking system..." even though it shouldn't. Yes, that much is obvious. "Currently, the major U.S. banking institutions have capital in excess of the amounts required to be considered well capitalized." But that part is more than a little disingenuous. It's from a joint statement by the Fed, FDIC, OCC, OTS, Treasury and three guys in the forestry service.

It's Official: Nouriel Rubini has confirmed that laissez-faire capitalism has failed.

Clean-up In Aisle 7: Asked to provide the addresses of its offices to the state of Utah, Premier Election Solutions - the Diebold subsidiary marketing electronic "election systems" - provided a list of 18 locations, 16 of which turned out to be Walmarts. Same in New York, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and New Hampshire.

Collapse, Explained: In 2007 it cost $1,400 to ship a container from China to Europe. Today you can do it for just the cost of the fuel.

Fear Itself: The"public fear of nationalization" is just something cooked up by (a) Bank of America's PR people, (b) Citi's PR flacks, or (c) a right-wing think tank. The reality is that the FDIC has been nationalizing, cleaning up and re-privatizing banks for decades - remember the S&L crisis? Relax, it'll be done in a way that makes the taxpayer take the losses and returns the profits to the oligarchs, like always.

Tea Leaves: A survey of 47 professional forecasters, none of whom predicted the housing bubble or the credit crash, has decided - by majority vote - that the economy will turn up this fall and return to health in 2010. Democracy in action.

The Difference Between Cars and Cash: AIG, which has already made more than $150 billion in taxpayer dollars disappear, will report a quarterly losses of $60 billion and tell Uncle to send the truck over. Why didn't the car companies give as much money to the politicians as Wall Street did? Then they could send over an SUV, too.

Travel Pay: AmEx will pay you $300 if you pay off your account and go away.

War in the Afternoon: Pakistan's army has ceased operations against Taliban militants in the northwestern regions, where earlier the government gave up and ceded governance to the Taliban and the Qran.

Steep Grade Ahead: Based on real estate transactions through the middle of December, it is expected that price declines for houses, condos and multi-family houses will continue in every market in the country.

Microsoft Recall Notice: "An inadvertent administrative error occurred that resulted in an overpayment in severance pay by Microsoft. We ask that you repay the overpayment and sincerely apologize for any inconvenience to you." They sent out 1,400 copies of the recall letter; response has been underwhelming.

Strategic Planning: Five months ago Congress directed the Pentagon to pay a $500-a-month bonus to soldiers forced to stay beyond the end of their enlistments. The military has not done so yet but reports they are working on a plan to accomplish this soon, right after they get through with the post-invasion plan for Iraq.

Lovin' It: An on-duty employee shot while assisting a customer being assaulted in one of its stores has been denied workers' compensation by McDonald's because his "injuries did not arise out of or within the course and scope of his employment."

Stressed Test: A disaffected insider explains stress-testing the banks: “The whole intent of this process is to show that the banks have enough capital for even worse outcomes than we currently envision and to show there’s a program in place to give banks access to that capital if they need it.”

SAR #9054

This was not unexpected.

Brier Patch: The more the White House 'leaks' its support for the private ownership of 'the banks,' the surer I am that nationalization is inevitable. We're just giving the larger shareholders time to get out before wiping out the rest. Over the weekend Citibank staged a massive propaganda effort to convince Wall Street, if not the taxpayers, that the US would exchange its $45 billion in preferred to about $4 billion in Citi's common. The $40 billion write-off would exceed all the funds loaned (not given) to the auto industry.

Can You Hear Me Now?: 92% of Americans are either paying their mortgage or don't have one. We didn't use our homes as ATM machines. We didn't lie about our incomes.

Pregnancy: Obama seems to be trying to be just a little bit pregnant in Afghanistan and (shh) Pakistan and the war on terror in general. Send in a few troops, lob in a few cruise missiles and hope something happens. The missile strikes are back to killing 10 civilians for every 1 or 2 Taliban. This is not progress.

Cliff Diving: Pemex reports a 9.2% YoY overall decline in crude production, and a 38% drop in output from Cantarell, the world's third-largest oilfield. Last one out, put out the lights.

Civil, Right: Secretary Clinton is wandering around China, ignoring civil rights and urging the Chinese to keep buying US debt. China buys US debt with the profits from selling salad spinners to the US. No sales, no surplus to buy the T-bills that keep the US afloat. This is just vendor financing - which worked so well for GMAC.

Confessional: Tom Ridge, the first US Secretary of Homeland Security, now says that the US was wrong to have instituted indefinite detention and to have tortured prisoners. He's now a fan of "due process' especially for himself and his co-defendants.

Attention to Retention: In today's declining employment environment, Morgan Stanley is going to pay out $3 billion (in taxpayer dollars) in order to get their employees to stay on. Are there lots of jobs for stockbrokers out there?

Agreed: Paul Volcker: A "Little Inflation" Is A Terrible Idea

Water is Life: The US Bureau of Reclamation has announced they will completely stop water deliveries to California's Central Valley for at least two weeks beginning March 1st. By mid-March a decision will be made on future water deliveries, if any, to the farms in the valley. The damage is estimated to be 40,000 jobs and $1.15 billion in the San Joaquin Valley alone, where most of the nation's produce and nuts are grown.

Resolutions: Obama plans to slash the deficit in half. I plan on losing 20 pounds.

Never Fear, Engineers Are Here: The UK's mechanical engineers say that global climate change is inevitable and the only thing to do is give them huge amounts of money to finance large civil engineering projects that will keep them employed help prepare the needed infrastructure changes.

Here's A TIP: Economists are urging the Fed to deliberately debase the dollar to the tune of 6% a year as a way of sweeping the massive debts under the rug. That'll help with mortgage rates.

Incompetence Malfeasance: Willfully misreading the stimulus legislation, Louisiana's Republican Gov. Bobby Jindal is rejecting $100 million in federal assistance because he claims, falsely, that it would require permanent changes in Louisiana law. It would require changes, but the changes could have sunset provisions - you know, like the GOP used when they claimed Bush's tax cuts weren't tax cuts.

Dry, Part 47: In Argentina the worst drought in 50 years is leaving cows dying by the thousands in the dry fields and seeds dormant in the dry soil.

Bigger Brother: Republican politicians are demanding that all internet providers (including you folks with home wi-fi networks, as well as hotels and coffee shops) obtain valid identification from all users and to keep a record of such for at least two years to aid in police investigations. I'm sure there is a funny line that goes here, but I just can't think of it.

Behind Our Backs: Economists call citizens who do not spend their lives spending "dead weight". Nice to know.

Porn O'Graph: House that again?

SAR #9052/Weekender

Once lipstick and lying no longer work, maybe they'll try truth.

Cart Before Horse? Some claim Geithner will have the details of the bank bailout ready next week, while others think the Fed will order in pizzas this weekend as they prepare emergency measures to take the big banks over come Monday.

Penny Saved: JC Penney's 4Q08 profit fell 51% from the prior year.

Looks Like Rain: The Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Index plunged to -41.3 in February from -24.3 in January as manufacturing continued to deteriorate and employment losses grew. More bailouts? More nationalizations? A new Five Year Plan?

The Gilded Age: The Good Old Days weren't, no matter what conservatives tell you.

Yes, But: According to Obama, "The plan ... focuses on rescuing families that played by the rules and acted responsibly…” They may have "played by the rules", but the rules at that time were not encouraging anyone to act responsibly. Most didn't.

Tree Huggers: Peasants in the tropics who chop down forests to grow crops to make biofuels will do far more damage to the ecosystem than the marginal good done by using the biofuel.
Oil Wars: Oil is the sine qua non of industrial civilization. Without oil there is no transport, no mechanized agriculture, no mechanized war. China is investing now in long term contracts for oil and other commodities. The US is investing in Citibank.

Morning Line: Jared Diamond, describing himself as "cautiously optimistic", says western civilization has a 51:49 chance of surviving.

Wired, or Not: As we get ready to cover the Southwest with hundreds if not thousands of acres of solar panels and stick windmill farms all over the place, someone noticed that it will require an awful lot of new transmission lines to make this useful.

Time Ravel: In 2005 the IEA predicted oil production would reach 130 mbd. Now it's saying 100 mbd by 2030. Total's CEO says that the world will never produce more than 89 mbd.

Turnover: With the loss of $8 trillion in house values, $10 trillion more from the market losses, and the impact of consumer debts and increasing unemployment, consumerism will be replaced by a generation of 'getting by.'

Dry: Texas is in the midst of the worst drought in a century. The soil is too dry for seeds to sprout, and many are thinking about not planting this spring. The USGS says the entire southwest will enter a "permanent state of drought" in twenty years or so.

Quoted: "There's not much room for common sense and logical thinking in the world of economics."

Suckers Wanted: How long will it take for the young folks of today, those in their 20's and 30's, who have seen their parents' retirement funds confiscated by Wall Street, to put their own money into stocks? Or houses?

SAR #9051

In politics, now always trumps later.

Weakly Figures: The latest unemployment figures for initial claims was over 600,000 for the fourth week in a row. That's 2.5 million a month. But there's no way it could continue for months and months and months.... is there? My piece of the American dream is supposed to cost me no more than 30% of my income. So, what's three times nothing?

Out of Town Tryout: GM's Saab has filed for bankruptcy in Sweden.

Problem: Obama's plan makes the same assumption the quants did when they set up the Cuisinart: that house prices only go up. It was a bad assumption then and a worse one now.

Traffic Light: Chinook salmon returning to California rivers last year were at a record low. Tight restrictions on salmon fishing are expected again this year in hopes of re-establishing the breeding stock.

Down & Out: Tajikistan, caught in a massive energy shortfall, will now have the IMF's devastating help in 'restructuring' its economy. Tajikistan's parliament has given the US six months to leave its strategic airbase at Manas. Maybe they should just raise the rent, for the base is one of the main American supply routes into Afghanistan.

Question of the Day: Why is the government taking my money to preserve someone else’s property value? Why am I saving the banks shareholders?

A Number: CNN reports that wholesale inflation rose 0.8% last month - the biggest gain since last July - due to rising energy prices. BTW, 0.8% in one month is 9.6% annually.

Game, Set, Match: Whatever big slice of $1 trillion a year the Pentagon gets, it's wasted. The US commander in Afghanistan admits that the rag-tag Taliban pick-up squad has played the mighty imperial troopers to a stalemate and that another 17 thousand will make no difference.

No Snow Cones: The World Bank agrees with climate scientists that the Andean glaciers that are the main source of water for much of Peru will most likely melt away by 2030. This will seriously harm agriculture, energy (hydro) generation, and people. The report noted that the earth's surface temperatures will rise 2ºC by 2050 and most probably 4ºC by 2100. (Those are codewords for disaster.)

Needs Work: Lowe's 4Q09 profits dropped 60%, says it will "reduce expenses". Probably by investing in pink slips.

Strangers: Let's have some sympathy and a bailout for those of us that rent. Or that paid for our abodes. Or that are current on our payments because we didn't get greedy. Maybe renters should be taxed extra to help support stressed house buyers. Oh, right. They already are.

Pssst! Lost in the mortgage hullabaloo , Wednesday the Fed reported that US manufacturing output is falling at an annualized decline rate of 26%, with factory utilization at only 68%.

Very Reserved: Estimated coal reserves for the Gillette coalfield in Wyoming's Power River Basin have been lowered by 94%. It provides over 37% of the nation's coal and has a lifespan of only 20 more years. Appalachian coalfields are in decline and may last only another 15 years - they already have to blow away 20 tons of mountain to get one ton of coal. At this rate CO2 emissions may be a moot point.

Bernanke Day: After six more months of weakness the economy may have a period of anemic growth late in the year. Maybe Ben saw his shadow and the 0.4% rise in leading economic indicators for January portend spiring is on the way. In 2010.

Going Up: The flowering range of about 15% of plant species in Arizona's Santa Catalina Mountains has progressively moved higher up the mountains in the last 20 years as the global temperature rose.

SAR #9050

And you just sit there?

Stand Up: The plan is to spend $275 billion to prevent 7 to 9 million foreclosures, at a cost of about $30,000 a house. "All of us are paying a price for this home mortgage crisis," Obama said. Apparently many of us are going to pay twice.

Nose, Face: Republican governors from Alaska, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas are considering rejecting federal stimulus funds. Fine. Let them that don't want none have memories of not having had none. And let them explain it to their voters.

Housebroken: The Republicans in the California Senate deposed their leader for negotiating with GOP Gov. Schwarzenegger and the Democrats in an attempt to solve the budget crisis. The Republicans do not want it solved, somehow perceiving ruining the state as manly and morally correct. They are more afraid of talk radio than voters.

Future Farmers of America: Horse manure, not plastics, young man. That's the future for those who want to prosper survive the long slump headed our way as the self-imposed curses of peak oil and global warming arrive on the heels of the housing/credit exhaustion. Think small. Small farms.

Barber Shop: The Plan requires that "lenders" bring the mortgage payments down to 38% of the borrowers' monthly gross income. This is going to be fun for all the 'stated income' folks and the newly unemployed. There are no "lenders"; there are those who bought up mortgages and bundled them into mortgage backed securities, and there are the holders of sliced and diced mortgage backed derivatives cut from those MBS. So does each one of those investors get to say yea or nay on each mortgage?

Resource Wars: I understand invading Iraq to get the oil, but do we actually want to corner the world market on heroin? Why else increase the Bush expeditionary force in Afghanistan? We could learn from the Brits and sell it to China...

Crashing In: CNBC's thought police didn't screen Howard Davidowitz closely enough and the Capitalism Now, Beloved Capitalism crew was treated to his views: The US will never recover from this downturn, living standards will not recover. The party is over. Nothing makes sense, especially the insane bailout programs. The deficit will run a trillion or more for a decade. There's a 50% chance of a depression... Sounded like they were interviewing me.

Peak Oil Did Not Go Away: With OPEC's cutbacks and the reduction in demand, Peak Oil has gone away, right? Nope. Every million barrels per day that is withheld from the market Peak oil puts off the eventual decline by about 3 weeks. If the decline in use is 4 mbd and goes on for 5 years, it might delay paying the Peak Oil piper by about 3 months.

Gamblers Anonymous: Why is the government is bailing speculators who bought homes they couldn't afford? Why am I being punished?

Fishing, Gone: Warming oceans are driving fishing stocks poleward and by 2050 US fleets will find few cod, herring and prawns. In general, northern fisheries will increase while those in the tropics will suffer major losses.

How Dry They Are: For the first time in 20 years the LA Water Department is imposing water rationing, reducing allotments and doubling prices for over-use. Shower together.

Growing & Not: The UN predicts the world's population will grow about 50% by 2050, while food production will fall about 25% from today. If we start tapering off now, by 2050 we'll all be used to getting by on 50% fewer calories.

Not All Bad: Fewer new homes and apartments were built last month - fewer than any time since records began in 1959. This is good news; there are too many new homes sitting around already - over a year's worth at the current snails sales pace.

Clean (Out Of) Coal: Turns out the 200 year supply of coal may be gone in 20 or 30 years. It may last longer simply because we've not enough rail capacity to use it up sooner. Then where will electricity come from?

Porn O'Graph: Building, or not, to an end.

SAR #9049

Why be nice to the banks? They've never been nice to us.

Taxing Matters: State sales tax receipts are down about 10% in January and are estimated to be down by 12% for 1Q09 from the prior year - more than twice the decline seen in any year since 1959. The American consumer isn't.

The Other Shoe: Before corporations undertake massive layoffs they consult "layoff lawyers." A survey of such consultants suggest that the US will lose about 3 million jobs in 1Q09.

We're All In Kansas, Toto: Budget shortfalls have forced Kansas to suspend tax refunds and to consider delaying paychecks to state workers. They could transfer some funds around, but Republicans refuse to go along, preferring to see the Democratic governor flounder.

A Few Words From His Sponsor: In a display of commander-in-chiefery, Obama is sending 17,000 soldiers to join our fool's mission in Afghanistan. I'd be more impressed if I had the faintest idea why.

Echo? Economists have discovered piles and piles of inventory sitting around, suggest that maybe banks are not lending because businesses are not borrowing. You read it here first, months ago. Don't tell Tim, he wants to make 'em lend.

Fries With That: Anticipated future losses at BofA, Citi, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley come to $525 billion, all of which will be paid by the US taxpayers, one way or another.

Mirror, What Mirror: The National Corn Growers Association, aka Ethanol Incorporated, says that the outrageous profits of greedy food companies have brought on the high cost of food while the distillers of ethanol are trying to save the US from the evil of imported oil.

Good Question: Does the United States make anything anymore? Actually, yes. Quite a lot, in fact.

Downcast Forecast: The CBO now estimates the 2009 budget deficit will reach $1,371 billion - 9.6% of GDP - and 2010 will be at least 1,100 billion. As usual, these figures do not include whatever it will cost to fund whatever wars we've got going at the time, nor the eventual $500 to $1,000 billion to bail out the banks.

Reality Bites: Republicans in the Congress can continue to posture and spout their hidebound philosophies, but GOP Governors have real responsibilities and hope that the Obama bailout is big enough, soon enough. And the populace agrees - bailout good, GOP bad in the latest popularity polls.

Quoted: "The aim (of the bailout) is to re-inflate property markets to enable owners to pay the banks, not to help the public sector."

Speaking Out: A series of presentations by climate scientists with emphasis on the Gulf Stream, ocean acidification, glacial melt, Arctic release of greenhouse gases, Asian rivers, permafrost melting and other feedback cycles the IPCC did not include in its latest report agree that the IPCC forecasts are woefully Pollyannish. Extreme weather has taken hold of the planet and things are going to get a lot worse if we don't stop burning carbon fuels. Even if the most stringent mitigation measures were put in place today, the impacts of climate change would still continue for centuries.

Birds of a Feather: The UN Drug and Crime chief reports that there are signs that profits from the illegal drug trade have been used to prop up banks. Banks, of course, are pushers of that addictive drug, credit.

Being Prepared: The US Army War College warns that the military must be ready to suppress widespread civil violence inside the US, provoked by economic collapse and/or domestic resistance and the loss of functioning political structures.

The Empire State's State: The NY Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey reflects a significant deterioration in manufacturing, general business, new orders, and prices received. Most of these indices are now at record lows. The report set a new record high for using the phrase "new record low".

Porn O'Graph: Petroleum, crudely put.

SAR #9048

Even prophets are occasionally right.

That? Oh, That: That hissing sound you hear off to the left, that's the Japanese sun setting in the far west. How far west? Down about 13% and falling. The stereo effect on the right is coming from Germany.

Takes One the Know One: Why did Wall Street executives who knew about Bernie Madoff's fraud keep quiet? Maybe because Bernie knew about theirs.

Preprivatization: The step formerly known as nationalization, phrased so Republicans can support it. This gilding of the lily is necessary because the 4 big banks (BofA, Citi, WF & JPMorgan) need about $450 billion and have a market capitalization of $200 billion. The US can either (a) give current shareholders a $250 billion gift, or (b) nationalize the banks. But it can't do (a) without a taxpayer revolt or (b) without a Wall Street/GOP revolt. What's behind door #3?

Headline: The war in Iraq isn't over. The main events may not even have happened yet.

Global Hamburger: Scientists report that growing and grinding and getting that hamburger to you causes as much global warming as driving your car for a couple of days. So walk to the burger joint, would ya? Else we're doomed.

Devil/Details: Deals on new cars are falling through because the value of used cars has plunged to where trade-in values are often much less than the remaining loan balances. Just like their houses.

Export/Import Fever: Net oil exports from Canada, Mexico and Venezuela (prime suppliers to the US), 5 mbd in 2004, have dropped to 3.9mbd in 2008. That is an ongoing annual decline of 6%, which is not good news for it means the US has about 10 years to find another supplier or do without.

The Day the Money Died: Thursday, Sept. 18, 2008, Bernanke and Paulson told the Congressional leadership that the US economy was in grave danger of a complete meltdown within a matter of days. We have been moving ever further into a command economy ever since.

Ponzis R US: The Fed's latest study of household weath says (a) there isn't any and (b) there hasn't been since 2000 and that all those notices we got from the Bush economy were about as valid as Bernie Madoff's, and that we cannot actually spend our way to riches. I hope a copy of this report gets to Congress soon.

In the Cards: Customers are using their credit cards less frequently and their average purchase amount has declined by 5.2% in the US. Payments on outstanding balances have also stalled.

Bigger than Madoff: The US Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction is investigating the role of 'senior military officers' in the misuse of $125 billion in Iraqi reconstruction funds. This may turn out to be the greatest monetary fraud in US history. The invasion itself was the biggest fraud in recent history.

Reminder: Jonh McCain, GOP Senator from Airizona, lost the presidential election to the other guy by very big margins. Some one should tell him.

Census Consensus: Why is the GOP making such a fuss over the next census? Because they are afraid an honest count will weaken them in that minority of districts where the ditto heads are now in the majority. They've always thought they were an oppressed minority, even when they were in the majority. Now their paranoia is at panic level, and they really don't want all those potential Democrats counted.

Porn O'Graph: Real retail sales declines.

SAR #9047

Elections don't seem to be working.

Perks: Toyota has told 2,200 of its top managers to buy a car . Fujitsu has suggested, in an email, that 100,000 of its employees would be happier with increased "employee ownership rates" of its PCs and cellphones. Panasonic is more direct: Buy $1,500 worth of gear or go away. Glad I work in a distillery.

Punching Bag: We're back at it again; this time a US cruise missile killed 25 folks at a local bingo parlor militants in Pakistan. How much longer can we do this? Why? And why is Feinstein embarrassing Islamabad?

Science is not politics: Scientists have found their voice and are now emphatically trying to make sure we understand future temperatures "will be beyond anytihing" predicted by the last IPCC report, which did not consider such feedback mechanisms as the melting Arctic Ice cover, the melting of Arctic permafrost, the dessication of the rainforests, or the sudden release of methane

Rescue Me: More than 30% of owners will walk away once the value of a home drops more than 20%, which may explain why nearly 60% of mortgage modifications fail within 6 months. Scary news, because the average US house price has dropped 19% since 2006.

Failure to Thrive: Eastern Europe, along with Russia and the Ukraine, are toppling over the edge. Austria, whose banks have lent them €230bn (75% of its GDP) will go with them. Eastern Europe owes $1.7 trillion, $400 billion is due this year. Russia has a $500 billion tab it may not be able to cover. 60% of Polish mortgages are in Swiss francs, against which the zolty was just halved. Hungary, the Balkans, and the Baltics are in the same boat. Nearly all this debt is owed (and won't be paid) to Austrian Belgian, Greek, Italian and Swedish banks. In addition, Europeans hold 74% of the nearly $5 trillion of emerging markets' debt. The German economy will shrink nearly 10% this year, so Berlin will not be rescuing anybody either, not even partners Greece, Italy Ireland, Portugal or Spain. The coming economic stress is the stuf that makes for pitchforks in the street.

Plagiarism: Someone finally is asking my question: "How can (banks) make loans when creditworthy borrowers are scarce?"

Business As Usual: The GOP machine that maintained a sustained attack on Clinton is being gearing up to undermine Obama. Not much changes. Ken 'The Puritan' Starr, who made a career out of not finding anything wrong with Whitewater, is warning that Obama will face an uphill battle over Supreme Court picks because he didn't warmly embrace two of Bush's picks. Elephants, it seems, don't forget. They can't count, either.

Double or Nothing: Citigroup’s credit card charge-offs have risen by 88% YoY, AmEx's more than doubled, while BofA is only up 61% from last year.

Had Mr C. Left the Building? Halliburton and its offspring KBR are paying a $579 million fine for bribing foreign officials to win construction contracts abroad. This does not include any bribes and kickbacks involved in their Iraqi contracts, where they were only doing their patriotic duty.

Sheep in Sheep's Clothing: John Mica, (R, FL), "I applaud President Obama's recognition that high-speed rail should be part of America's future." However, he did not vote for the stimulus bill in which the high-speed rail funding was included.

Pinheaded Angels: In Alabama they are worried that a law prohibiting even those with permits to carry concealed weapons from sneaking guns into church is an intrusion on the separation of church and state. It should be up to the members of each church, they claim, to decide whether they want to spend Sunday morning wondering which of their brethren is going to whip out an automatic and send them all to see Jesus. On the positive side, it might keep 'em awake through the sermon.

Nationalize Here, Nationalize Now: The chorus is in full throat; it's not just Roubini, Taleb, and the lefties any more. Seems like 'everyone' (except Geithner and Bernanke, who are the only ones who count) knows that the big banks must be sent to rehab.

Good Sign: A majority of investors polled by Bloomberg in 10 markets from New York to Paris and Tokyo, predict that stocks will continue to fall over the next six months. When's the last time a majority of investors was right?

Porn O'Graph: Another way of comparing unemployment data: by household.

SAR #9045/Weekender

Would you prefer the frying pan or the fire? Joseph Price

This Can Not Be True: One out of 9 houses in the US is vacant. "The numbers are further documentation of the gravity of the housing problem," says Nicolas Retsinas, head of Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies.

Oxymoron: Democratic Leadership.

Soapbox: I'm tired of reading the largest US banks are being raised from the dead so they can "resume the ample lending needed to restart the wheels of commerce." Nonsense. When a business can make a product and sell it for a profit, then the wheels will start turning. That takes customers with actual money - not credit, money. And that will take digesting the bad debts, followed by the gradual accumulation of capital. It's capitalism, not creditism. And it is a long and dreadful ways off.

Repeat After Me: Carbon Tax, carbon tax, carbontax. A tax based on carbon emissions. Say it several times, to get comfortable with an idea whose time has come.

1 + 1 = The Realtors report that house prices fell 12.4% YoY in 4Q08, with 45% of sales being from the 2.3 million foreclosures last year.

Totaled: Christophe de Margerie, CEO of French petroleum giant Total, says that the ability of the industry to increase future production will be below 90 million barrels a day. "The capacity that the oil industry has to go to 93-95 million barrels per day is already over." Turn out the lights when you leave the room, the party's over.

Still Going Up: Climate-warming atmospheric CO2 has now reached 392ppm, the highest level in the last 800,000 years. The larger portion of this gas will remain in the atmosphere, warming the earth, for well over a century. A gift to the grandkids.

Me Too ! Whatever subsidy Obama and the Gang of 60 come up with for folks struggling with oversize mortgages on oversized houses that they could not afford in a reality based economy, I want a chicken in my pot, too.

Just Asking: How does the Treasury providing $50 billion of "assistance to prevent avoidable foreclosures" differ from the Treasury buying $50 billion in bad assets from the banks?

Diet Soda: GM is making "world's first large luxury hybrid SUV". At $73,000 each the Irony will get better milage than the standard Escalade by nearly a half mile a gallon. you want fries with that?

Tantrums: GOP House leader John Boehner threw the stimulus bill - the nation's hope to avoid ruin for millions of working folks - on the floor in disdain. The House's GOP caucus chair, Tennessee"s Glen Casada, and three other TN GOP members have joined in a court suit trying to overturn Obama's election on the basis that he is not a citizen and is not Barack Obama, either. And the new RNC chair admits that citizens "have absolutely no reason, none, to trust our word or our actions at this point."

Fair Fight: In an attempt to level the playing field, the US military has let a third of the quarter million weapons given to the Afghan government to go AWOL - most likely to the Taliban.

Among the Missing: On a list of the 25 people to blame for this mess, not including Mr. Peak Oil is strange. Did not the high prices of 2008 and the leveling off of production not have a great deal to do with the collapse? If petroleum availability has stopped growing, so too must economies.

Hunger? What Hunger: Fully 33% of the 2009/2010 US corn crop will go to make ethanol.

Revenge of the Serfs: Gazprom Neft reports a 2.4% YoY reduction in petroleum exports and a 10.8% YoY reduction in the export of oil products. The decreases were due to increasing domestic consumption. Right in line with Export Land Model predictions.

Deal Us In: Some of the world's leading airlines claim they want to make sure that any regulation of greenhouse gas emissions is "pragmatic, fair and effective". Not really, for under such a program most flights would be abolished.

Porn O'Graph: Working steadily, or at least being paid that way.

SAR #9044

For some reason, the debate over climate change is essentially over in Australia. Eric deCarbonnel

Curb Your Enthusiasm: Yes, retail sales increased in January from December. But they dropped 10.4% from the prior January.

Tumors: Roubini says we should excise the big, insolvent banks and let the others sink or swim as they will. These monster banks and their deformed offspring exist solely for the benefit of the investor, trader, manipulator class and deliver no discernible benefit to the population at large. Cut here, cut deep, cut now.

Good Question: At the end of the tunnel, what will be the engine of our economy?

For the Birds: The Audubon Society reports that more than half of the 305 species of birds in North American have shifted their wintering grounds northward over the last 40 years. During that time the average January temperature in the US has climbed 5ºF.

It's Been A Bad Year: Nearly 700 Merrill Lynch executives took home 'retention' bonuses of $1 million or more. The company lost $27 billion. Wouldn't want these guys looking for better jobs.

Self-Hoisting Petard: California's Republicans refuse all tax-based solutions to the state's budget crisis. Nicely enough, the Republican parts of the state would be hurt most deeply by the resulting budget cuts.

Read 'em and Weep: Two headlines from the Washington Post, 2/12/09 edition: Lawmakers' Goal to Cap Executive Pay Meets Resistance and Employers Fighting Unemployment Benefits

Let's Make a Deal: Word is that the Administration has acquiesced to a "grand bargain" in which Wall Street gets saved to the tune of trillions and Obama guts Social Security and Medicare in the name of fiscal responsibility. Ridiculous. If Social Security taxes were levied on all income rather than just the first $100K, there would be no problem with Social Security. If we had a single payer universal health system there'd be no problem with Medicare. Keep those pitchforks handy.

Fit The Crime: Perhaps they should make Stewart Parnell, owner of Peanut Corp. of America, eat his own peanut products, regularly, for the same length of time he foisted the stuff on children.

Step on the Scales: Hundreds of federal banking regulators have descended on Citi, BofA, JPMorgan Chase and 15 other of the biggest banks on Wednesday, checking the books and kicking the tires. Finally. But are they really checking things, or did they just drop in for coffee?

In Plain Sight: The available evidence has long since demonstrated that the American 'War on Drugs' is a failure. Now a commission headed by 3 former Latin American heads of state (Cardoso of Brazil, Zedillo of Mexico, and Gavira of Columbia) says it is time to treat drug use as a health problem and to decriminalize the use of marijuana. Too much money flows to DEA , the cops, the military, and those taking the bribes for this to be considered.

On Location: Visualizing the real estate problems in San Francisco.

Dumb Fox: Just as many suspect that Bernanke and Paulson (and Bush) knew exactly what they were doing in giving trillions to the plutocrats, suspicion is arising that Tim Geithner knows what he's doing. It's just that his stated goals and is actual goals are not close cousins.

Cognitive Dissonance: Reckless lending and unbridled speculation led to the housing bubble. Thirty years of stagnant wages tripped up the bubble and brought on the crash. The solution to that is not to encourage another round of reckless lending and speculation. Hey! The system is broken, don't treat the symptom, change the system.

Porn O'Graph: Something to chew on, or not; pictures and 1000 words.

SAR #9043

When did we exchange reality for illusion?

The Bailout: The core of Geithner's plan is to lead the horse to water again. The horse being overspent customers, the water being bank credit. How many times are they going to do this before they figure out the damned horse is bloated?

A Stitch in Time: Panasonic has ordered the families of its Japanese employees in parts of Asia, the Middle East, Africa, Russia, former Soviet states and Latin America to send their families home to Japan by the end of September “well ahead of possible confusion at the outbreak of a global bird flu pandemic.” Reported by Bloomberg, UPI, National Post, Canada, Taipei Times, and others. Who knows, but are we sure the global disaster they're preparing for is bird flu?

Whimper: After last year's hullabaloo, drama queen Bret Farve's retirement from the Jets goes nearly unnoticed.

Lost In Translation: Obama distances himself from "the Swedish solution" because we have too many banks and it is not our tradition for the government to take such steps. Nationalizing the top 5 or 6 would suffice. And the US tradition of the government helping out crippled capitalists doesn't seem to be working very well.

New & Improved: The Bush Obama Administration continues to refuse disclose any information on the kidnap and torture renditions it is secretly carrying out around the world.

Freedom Power of the Press: McGraw Hill paid Barry Ritholtz an advance to write a book on the credit debacle. McGraw Hill owns S&P. S&P is one of the big three credit rating agencies. Ritholtz's book suggests that being paid for ratings by the rater is a bit like asking a prostitute if it was good for her. McGraw Hill wants its money back.

Headlines Only: Commercial Mortgage Applications Off 80 Percent in Q4 and U.S. Trade: Exports and Imports Decline Sharply

Half A Loaf: Merrill Lynch forecasts that global oil production, which has been declining at a 4.5% per year average recently, will decline faster in the future because non-Opec production - about 60% of today's output - has peaked and begun to decline and new discoveries do not replace the loss. Luckily, the world's economies are declining fast enough that we won't be inconvenienced by the lack of oil.

Fire Drill: China wants guarantees for its $628 billion in US government debt. What would that look like? A promise from the President? A note from Bernanke? What we've got is what they get.

History Lesson: Speaking of old American traditions, during the panic of 1873 angry mobs dragged bankers from their offices and hanged them. Just saying...

Truly Vile: Big Pharma is working to remove $1.1 billion from the stimulus bill that is for research comparing various medical treatments for cost and effectiveness. They argue that such information would reduce employment in the drug and nostrum industry. True.

Here There Be Tygers: The blank spots in Geithner's plan should be labeled like the undiscoverd parts of vast continents on old treasure maps.

Truth Commission: Republican Betsy McCaughey, once NY's Lt Gov, claims the stimulus plan includes a 'new bureaucracy', the National Coordinator of Health Information Technology, which will "monitor treatments to make sure your doctor is doing what the federal government deems appropriate and cost effective," with the aim of making sure your doctor is doing right by you. Except. Except the NCHIT isn't new, it's a first term Bush invention and it has nothing to do with treatments and everything to do with computer ready records. Gotta watch 'em all the time.

Too Clever By Half: Almost half of all the derivatives of derivatives ever sliced and diced and foisted off on the unsuspecting have now defaulted. Clever, very clever.

Wish I'd Said That: Read the first 4 paragraph of Ilargi's intro over at Automatic Earth for February 11, 2009 and say Amen. Then write your state and federal representatives and the editor of the local paper.

Porn O'Graph: Headed off at the gap.

SAR #9042

"The sky is falling" is now considered a reasonable opinion.

Please Explain: The market greets a $1.3 to $3 trillion bailout of Wall Street by falling 360 points. It was too much? Not enough? Oh, right, it's the salary cap for executives.

Job Performance: GM is cutting 10,000 salaried jobs and reduce other salaried workers pay by 10% so it can meet the government's bailout terms. Wouldn't you love to see Citibank and BofA make the same announcement?

Turning Up The Heat: Scientists, having overcome their reticence of late, now warn that our responses to date and those now being planned are not sufficient. Studies since the last IPCC report show that global warming is accelerating far beyond old expectations. The sea is rising faster, ice is melting faster, CO2 levels are rising faster, permafrost is starting to melt, the oceans are growing more acidic and are absorbing less CO2. It is not a case of "can we keep it to only a 2ºC rise?" but rather, can we survive a 4ºC rise? Do we really want to find out?

Mumbo Jumbo: JPMorgan says prime-jumbo mortgages are going belly up twice as fast as previously predicted.

Tact: In a gentlemanly attempt not to scare the women and children, former economic advisor to the British Treasury Edwin Balls proclaims "this is becoming the most serious global recession for over 100 years." Wouldn't do to use the 'D' word in polite discourse.

Women and Children Bankers First: Ignoring Fact #1, which is that US banking system is insolvent and needs to go bankrupt, Geithner sets out to save the banks by (1) giving the banks a lot of money - lots more than they're worth, (2) not telling them what to do with it (3) helping the rich buy banks' bad assets by guaranteeing their losses (4) giving banks $1 trillion to lend to overextended people, and (5) praying for a new bubble.

Needs Work: the 60-story John Hancock tower is facing foreclosure and is scheduled to be auctioned off next month. Might be a good location for a used book store & laundromat.

Proportion: Japan's economy is contracting at a 12% annual rate, Spain's unemployment is at 14.4%, Ireland lost 36,500 jobs in January - that's as if the US lost more than 2 million last month. Canada lost 129,000 jobs in January - the equivalent of 1.2 million in the US.

Quelle Surprise: Another application of the same ineffective nostrum did not cure the market. What did you expect?

Causation: As the climate models predict, global warming has produced a 12 year drought in southern Australia. (After 12 years it begins to look like a permanent change in climate, not a drought.) The models also predicted an increase in windstorms, which came just in time to drive the worst firestorm in Australian history. For the record, the worst polluting coal-fired power plant on earth is in Victoria.

Just Say No: Just as a 40-year-old woman has an increased risk of bearing a child with Down syndrome, 40-year-old men have an increased risk of fathering a child with schizophrenia, and a 6 times greater risk of his child being autistic. And the older the riskier.

Silly Questions: Why isn't there more consensus among economists? Will the government's rescue plans work? Why can't we all get along? Why is there broccoli?

You Are Poor, Too Bad: That's the message behind the unbelievably stupid stories about how no one can possibly survive in NYC on less than $1.3 million a year, certainly not on just $500,000. Tell that to the people who clean the offices, pour up the coffee, dance at ABT... No wonder some of executives get around in armored cars.

Credit Scare: If you stop shopping at Macy's and start running up the bill at Wal-Mart, your credit card company may think you've become a worse risk, cut the limit and increase the rate.

Do Not Pass Go $200 Billion: Fannie and Freddie now need another $200 billion. Notice how all the Fannie/Freddie, Treasury and Fed bailout stuff, trillions and trillions, just glides along, and $35 billion for alternative energy gets everybody upset?

Porn O'Graph: It's a capital idea, bank on it.

SAR #9041

You are entitled to your own opinion, not your own facts

Stinker Shock: We're about to spend about $1 trillion and not even get a lousy T-shirt. The tax cut half will be ineffective ( & has been for years), alternative energy gets a tiny bit, and there is some funding to help the casualties - states, the unemployed, schools, but mostly it's poorly thought out pork. The $35 billion to be wasted playing "let's move!" should go into building walkable cities, not refinancing suburban sprawl. No leadership on the real problems: energy, global warming, sustainable economy.

Single Prayer: 59% of Americans want a single-payer health system, 49% feel it should cover all medical costs. Washington insiders - reading from insurance company lobbyists notes - say it can't happen. It could if those very same people weren't blocking the door.

Prophits: Exxon and Chevron are each keeping up their $20-plus billion annual spending on development projects. The suspicion is they think there's money to be made in the future, and not at a lowly $40 a barrel.

You Are There: Finally we commoners get to learn what Our Betters were told last September that got this whole panic started: US money markets lost $550 billion in an hour, the Treasury threw $105 billion at it to no effect, then closed the money accounts, and announced a $250,000 guarantee per account to stem the panic. Had they not acted, their estimate was that $5.5 trillion would have departed the US that day, leading to a complete collapse of the US markets, economy, and probably government. No wonder Paulson's knees were shaking.

Modernization: The rate of birth defects in China's coal-mining district has shot up 40% since 2001. Officials blame emissions from Shanxi's large coal and chemical industry for the problems there. Imagine.

Wait Watchers: The American economy is on a diet, the American consumer is cutting back on fattening SUVs and McMansions. Everything's shrinking: wages, portfolios, GDP, credit card payments, employment and, most seriously, expectations.

The Quote: "The major US money center banks will be nationalized. The only questions are when and how."

End of the Line: For the usual prize, explain what will be the next (and final) bubble - Treasuries or the US Dollar.

Friday the 13th. Part44: Another sequel, this time the dreaded Kleptocrats slither into costumes and pretend to be the New Team. Summers, Gates (and 150 underlings), Emanuel, Geithner, Judd Gregg, and on and on - a roll call of old politics and Wall Street mavens.

Red Nose, Big Feet: Starbucks, where 90% of the drinks cost under $4, is looking for a friendly mascot to push their new value meals and kids koffee kits. Elsewhere, McDonald's same-store sales are up 7.1% . Ronald's not looking for a new gig.

Repeat After Me: If cutting taxes worked to build the economy, we should not be in this mess. Republicans have been cutting taxes forever. Our not learning from their mistakes is their trademark.

Unintended Benefit: States that use debit cards to disburse unemployment benefits are not only helping the unemployed (but not as much as they thought), they are also enriching the issuing banks, which charge $1.50 for each withdrawal, 40 cents to check the balance, even a buck a month if the card isn't used frequently enough to run up the other fees.

Re-Write: Given the ongoing specter of acrimony and divisiveness in Washington, some feel is time to do away with the filibuster. Others point out that the filibuster is the only barrier preventing a democratic dictatorship in the US. Or a Democratic one.

The Lazarus Project: The 'new" bank bailout plan is the old plan, only bigger. The poorest managers of the shakiest banks get priority access to taxpayer pockets. The government makes a hollow threat to take over these banks in seven years, maybe, with cosmetic caps on salaries to fool the public. Government will pay way too much for assets that will soon be worthless.

There Will Be a Short Pause: Among the many problems with fuel cell salvation is this: the most promising type depends on platinum, they cost $10,000 and - zinger - there's not enough platinum. Write your Congressman.

Porn O'Graph: Why our debts will never be repaid.

SAR #9040

The word "credit" derives from credo, i.e. faith. Hellasious

Something in the Water: The passage from Bush to Obama didn't change the basic bait-and-switch that's behind the electoral promise. Bush was a compassionate conservative who turned out to be a heartless neo-con. Obama promised change and is delivering business as usual. Maybe it's in the White House water.

Real Tales: Same-store sales fell at Neiman Marcus 24%, Saks 24%, Gap 23%, American Eagle 22%, Penny 16%, Kohl's 13%, Dillard's 12, Macy's 4.5%, Nordstrom 11%, and so on.

Energy Costs: A high incidence of cancer is being found in an aboriginal village near the massive oil sands mines in Alberta. Health officials say there was no cause to be alarmed unless it spreads to non aboriginal inhabitants.

Safe at Home: Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack believes a single agency should be created to oversee US food safety, an undertaking now not done by a number of agencies.

A Plague on Both: In order to get just 3 GOP votes the Dems had to settle for far fewer job creating school construction funds, less health care and food for the unemployed and little help for bankrupt states. Then they had to smile and give the still employed and businesses bigger tax cuts. They have no shame, neither the one nor the other.

Subtlety: At first glance, the Obama foreign policy, as expressed by VP Biden, is little different than that of the Bush Administration. It's not much different on second look, either.

The First Hit's Free, Kid: In an attempt to addict ever more workers into paying mortgages on overpriced homes, the government is now going to give them up to $15,000 to start the habit. How does moving to a different house down the street create jobs?

Sound & Fury: 8 states have resolutions pending seeking state sovereignty under the 9th and 10th Amendments to the Constitution. The audience is getting restless.

Buddy Can You Spare A Dime: Now that we've gotten used to saying "recession", it's time to practice saying "depression". It doesn't look like one? You expect soup kitchens and guys selling apples? Over 30 million Americans are on food stamps (SNAP!) which cuts down on standing in soup lines. As for the apples, how many garage sales are there in your neighborhood every weekend?

Soon: The US military is citing low oil prices as a reason to extend the US presence in Iraq, claiming the Iraqis will not have sufficient funds to train and equip its forces.

Educational Play: Get you kid her own airport screening station, Playmobil's Security Check Point ($62). Comes with wands, metal detector, x-ray belt, racial profiling guide, handcuffs and Mace. Sorry we missed it before Christmas.

Asked and Answered: Is China Immune to Crisis? No.

US Plans to Loosen Looting Lending: Hoping to jump-start the financial system, the Fed's got a new plan under which hedge funds will get to game the system and make off with billions. Meanwhile the effort continues to get banks to lend to people who have "pre-consumed" their income for the next ten years already and soon won't have jobs. Can't be done. Or at least shouldn't be.

Negotiating: The Senate insists on its version of the stimulus bill in conference with the House; politics as the art of the impossible.

Road Map: If we do not fix the system, the future holds either inflation or default by the US (but I repeat myself), as it follows in Robert Mugabe's footsteps. And the US is not alone; printing presses are being cranked up around the world. Without serious reform we will cycle ever more quickly from bubble to boom and an eventual dissolution into civil disorder in which today's governments will be replaced. Perhaps we should join Tom Paine under a convenient tree...

Commies: China announced that it will provide universal health care to its people within the next two years. What's the point of being communist if you don't get free health care?

Porn O'Graph: Employment under two randomly selected presidents.

SAR #9038/Weekender

Does it bother you that the Treasury still won't tell us

who they gave what to, or the conditions?

Devil / Details: Paulson paid $274 billion for $176 billion worth of stocks and warrants under the TARP program. These assets may end up worthless. Captain Renault is shocked.

Cliff Notes: A deadly serious debate about how to save our economy has been turned into hackneyed political theater by Republicans who act as if the dismal economic failure of the last eight years never happened. It's hard to exaggerate how much economic trouble we're in. Most economists warn that in the absence of government action we're headed for a deep, prolonged slump, an economic abyss in which the economy ends up stuck in a prolonged cycle of deflation feeding on itself. Everything depends on what we do next, what Obama does next.

Planning Ahead: The Treasury has hired two law firms to "advise on the restructuring" (i.e. bankruptcy) of GM and Chrysler.

Today's Word : Pre-consumption. As in "I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today." Americans have gone into unpayable levels of debt to satisfy their consumption needs far into the future. They've been pre-consuming their income.

Headline Only: "Landlords Drop Demands For Murdered Woman To Pay Back Rent"

Water Shortage: The worst drought in 50 years has left 4 million Chinese without adequate drinking water, and threatens the summer grain harvest. As if 25 million newly unemployed peasants wasn't enough of a problem.

Another Headline: "The Other Unemployment Rate: 13.9%"

Public Speaking: "Don't come to the table with the same tired arguments and worn ideas that helped to create this crisis... We're not going to get relief by turning back to the very same policies that, for the last eight years, doubled the national debt and threw our economy into a tailspin. We can't embrace the losing formula that says only tax cuts will work for every problem we face, that ignores critical challenges like our addiction to foreign oil, or the soaring cost of health care, or failing schools and crumbling bridges and roads and levees. I don't care whether you're driving a hybrid or an SUV -- if you're headed for a cliff, you've got to change direction." President Barack Obama.

More of Less: Research shows that high-yielding veggies and grains provide less protein and minerals than the unimproved, lower yielding (and better tasting) types. Progress through biochemistry.

Real Counterfeits: If your Bally shoes, Burbury coat, Louis Vuitton bag, are the real thing, they most certainly are not made in China, right? Wrong. They are assembled - mostly- where they are supposed to be; but they are made in China. And no matter what the label says, 60% of the honey in the US is imported, half of that from China. Read the label, carry salt.

Quoted: I really don’t understand how bipartisanship is ever going to work when one of the parties is insane.

Synchronized Sinking: Everybody's tanking. There's no safe place except the mattress. GDPs here, there and everywhere are negative. Protectionism has been sighted. Roubini strikes again, there is no place to hide.

Coup d’etat: We didn't get here by accident; such a glorious ongoing transfer of wealth to a relative handful while beggaring the planet has been determinedly underway for a decade or more. The pieces fit together.

Porn O'Graph: US economy going strong; too bad it's going downhill.

SAR #9037

Turns out 'forever' had an expiration date. (Seeking Alpha)

Once over: In case you haven't been sufficiently bombarded, more Americans applied for unemployment last week (626,000 of 'em) than any time in the last 26 years. January retail sales also fell significantly, while credit card delinquencies rose dramatically.

Cardiff Giant: Three senior economists from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, having examined the Fed's data closely, conclude that at no point had lending seized up. In fact, " banks were lending to each other at record levels." They went on to conclude “Maybe Bernanke and Paulson had information that they were not making public, but the available data simply did not support what they were saying."

Wreckers: The GOP would prefer to let a depression occur than let government - useless, discredited government - save the day. It is in their political interest to kill the bill, or at least maim it beyond recognition, for the economic disaster will be blamed on the Democrats, and rightly so, if they let the Republicans get away with this.

Consequences: Could the light at the end of the tunnel be peasants with torches? If the economic system fails, can society be far behind?

Real Life vs Bailout: In real life, if a company fails the cause is immaterial, it failed. Failed companies go out of business. The people who ran the failed company are out of work, and labeled as failures. Those who put up the money (stockholders) lose their investments. The assets are auctioned off to the highest bidder and split between the creditors. Taxpayers are not involved. Any resemblance to the bailout process is imaginary.

Dead Heat: In the semi-finals to win the right to face Ireland in the race to bankruptcy, California has pulled ahead of Louisiana as having the worst credit rating in the nation.

Educational Play: Get your kid her own airport screening station, Playmobil's Security Check Point ($62). Comes with wands, metal detector, x-ray belt, racial profiling guide, handcuffs and Mace. Sorry we missed it before Christmas.

California Dreaming Nightmare: Energy Secretary Chu sees California's water shortages becoming ever worse, with the Sierra snowpack nearly disappearing over time. This will lead to "no more agriculture in California," and he added, "I don't actually see how they can keep their cities going." In 1997 California's population was 22 million; in 30 years it has grown to 36 million.

Headline Only: "Congress: A Distinct Criminal Class?

Another One: "Good News: Massive Layoffs Means Big Productivity Gains." Don't you just love the capitalists.

Redundancy: President Obama is establishing a second faith-based office, this one in the White House to coordinate violation of the church-state separation doctrine. It joins the Treasury, a faith-based department which routinely violates the separation of government and Wall Street.

ENOUGH ! In the name of sanity and truth, FOX should be enjoined from using the word 'news'. Now they've got Glen Beck running a Comrade Update for Communist Leader Obama, detailing the nation's descent into socialism. Two things: (1) the US is not descending into socialism, it is striving mightily to save capitalism and (2) ameliorating capitalist excesses is not down - it is up, and a destination devoutly to be wished.

Porn O'Graph: Invitation to a Lynching.

SAR #9036

The economy is powered by energy, not money.

Politics is powered by money.

Nostrum: The holy grail is a political solution to a structural economic problem. The best solution - seen from The Hill - must maintain the economic status quo, reinflate the housing bubble, lower taxes on the rich, hide the poor and re-establish the GOP as God's Optimal People. Hard to do with all these Democrats trying to help folks who make less than $50k.

Anger Management: Today's failures at holding their tounges: Yves at Naked Capitalism, Chris Hedges at Truthdig. Any day, Ilargi and Dan W. & thank you one and all.

Country W/O a Profit: Remember how the taxpayers were going to get rich off the 'assets' picked up when riding to the rescue? So far they've lost the whole farm on Bear Sterns' $30 billion - or so outsider's say. The Fed still carries them at par, which is par for the course.

Team Sports: Iceland, China, Latvia, Greece, France, Great Britain, Russia - citizens around the world are rising up against the looting by their financial leaders. But not in America. Americans are waiting until the jackpot is bigger.

Intimidation: When Sammy the Smasher comes around and threatens to harm your family if you testify, it's called witness tampering. When the US threatens Great Britain harm if it testifies to US torture, it's called diplomacy.

Plot Summary: Markopolos testimony in L'affair Madoff can't be true; it's the plot from 47 bad crime novels and more than a few political thrillers. Ah, the very flower of capitalism - corruption R US.

Summary Judgment: Globalization never happened. It wasn't trade; trade involves goods. The US shipped jobs to China and the Chinese sent their people's savings to the US. It was not trade, it was stupidity. Still is.

Headline Only: "IBM Offers To Move Laid Off Workers To India"

Cash Crops: Amid global economic collapse, 900 million undernourished people and mass starvation in parts of Africa, Archer Daniels Midland boosted its earnings 24% by raising its prices "through improved product prices."

Mortgage Slavery: Preventing foreclosures has become a top priority of politicians, economists and regulators. The intent is to find some level of mortgage at which the rich can continue to take 30% of the workers' incomes.

Reality Check: The house is on fire. The Dems want to call the fire department, get the kids out of danger and use the garden hose. The Repubs don't believe in fire departments or fighting fires - they just want to cut taxes.

Identity Theft: For about $250 you can legally get a setup that allows you to drive around filching personal information from passports, driver's licenses, and similar documents with information coded on RFID tags. Ah, improved security, they promised.

The Green : One day soon - a few years at best - oil depletion will scuttle our economies. And if it doesn't, global warming will. But today there are hundreds of thousands of newly unemployed each month. Guess which wheel will get the green grease?

Just As You Thought: Wall Street's new boy at the Treasury: "“We have a financial system that is run by private shareholders, managed by private institutions, and we’d like to do our best to preserve that system.” Who's "we", Kimosabe?

Down So Long, Looks Like Up: Don't be fooled. Pretty soon car sales & house sales will stop falling - negative sales just ain't gonna happen. Doesn't mean 'UP" is next. The next up is still unemployment.

Privacy Smivacy: You're shopping at the mall and your cellphone rings, or you're at the airport and your boss calls, or you're on vacation in Vegas and the babysitter calls. So, isn't that neat? If the phone company knows where to find you, 24/7, and Google knows where to find you, do you think NSA doesn't?

Porn O'Graph: In for a penny, in for a Pound ha'penny.

sar #9035

It's only money.

Pinocchio : Republicans threatened to filibuster the stimulus bill, claiming their goal was not to block the bill but to change it into a tax cut for them and their owners. "Nobody that I know of is trying to keep a package from passing," said GOP leader Sen. McConnell, fingers firmly crossed behind his back.

Puzzles #1 and #2: How long will the American taxpayer keep bailing out the elite? What form will the revolution take?

He said They said : Kyrgyzstan's president said Tuesday that US use of Manas airbase is ending. A US military official said this was "political positioning" and denied the US would be leaving the airbase any time soon. Also, he added, all the troops in Iraq are 'support troops'.

Garage Sales: In January, Chrysler's sales were down 55%, Yoy, GM's sales fell 49%, Ford's fell 40%, Toyota was down 32% in the US, Honda down 28%.

Not Made in Japan: Japan's industrial output has fallen nearly 30% in the last 4 months. That is a larger decline in output than any 12 month period in the US during the Great Depression. If this keeps up for a full year, there will be essentially no production in Japan. Zero.

Word for the Day: Insubordination - Disobeying the legal orders of a superior, as in Generals Petraeus and Odinero deliberately trying to evade Obama's order that the retreat withdrawal from Iraq proceed .

Getting Malled: Simon Property Group, the largest US mall owner, plans to pay its dividends in IOUs stock. It also revealed it will not build any major new projects for 8 to 10 years.

Three Little Piggies: Geithner, Daschle, Killefer. At least Nancy Killefer had the common decency to withdraw her name from consideration, which shamed Daschle into following suit. Don't expect Geithner to follow along, he's from the IMF and Fed, and those folks have no shame.

Not Good Tidings: The FDIC wants to triple its credit line to $100 billion so it can handle the coming bank failures. Optimists.

Logistics: "An Army travels on it's belly," Napoleon. "[In Afghanistan] a small army would be annihilated and a large one starved," Duke of Wellington. A 100 ft iron bridge 15 miles out of Peshawar on the way to the Khyber Pass has been destroyed. Nearly all supplies to NATO forces in Afghanistan must traverse this route.

Less is Less: The average house size shrank from 2,629 to 2,438 square feet from 2Q08 to 3Q08. Another year or two they'll be down to a nearly reasonable size.

Priorities: "Coal is 80 percent of the planet's problems," Dr Hansen maintains. "You have to keep your eye on the ball and not waste your efforts. The No. 1 enemy is coal and we should not forget that." All fossil fuels are a problem, of course, but a coal-fired plant emits twice as much carbon dioxide as a gas-fired plant producing the same amount of electricity.

The Bush Legacy: In Bush's first 6 years the average income of America's richest 400 doubled to $263 million while their tax rate fell from 30% to 17.2%. How did you do?

Location, Location, Location: Nearly 95% of homes in the LA metro area lost value last year. Over 50% of houses were sold at a loss. More than 1 out of 3 house sold in the area were foreclosures. Nationwide it is thought that one in six homeowners is underwater.

Compostus Interuptis : Now someone wants to dump all of the world's agricultural waste into the deep oceans, to sequester the carbon. What happens to a field's productivity if you do not return nutrients to the soil? Can't any of these idiots think things through? Absent decomposting crop waste the field will lose fertility rapidly, then require more and more fertilizer.... Jeesh.

Snake Oil: Tax cuts cure (a) the budget surplus, (b) the budget deficit, (c) unemployment, (d) recession (e) voter apathy, (f) anemic PAC funds.

Porn O'Graph: SNAP, crackle and pop.

SAR #9034

After 30 years of screwing around, we are out of second chances.

Word for the Day: Cognitive Dissonance: Holding two diametrically opposed opinions, as in Secretary Geithner saying "We have a financial system that is run by private shareholders, managed by private institutions, and we'd like to do our best to preserve that system," as he argues for the next TARP and the stimulus bill.

Quoted: "The financial debacle has many causes and implications, but it would be wrong to underestimate systemic corruption."

Trying Times: The Israeli Army is sufficiently concerned about the possibility of international tribunals investigating their soldiers for war crimes in Gaza that all officers from battalion level down are wearing black facemasks to conceal their identity.

Fixer-Uppers: In Q408 more money went into fixing up old homesteads than went into buying new ones. Make do or do without, a sign of the times.

Insulating the Economy: How big a boost would the economy get if the Feds underwrote bringing every house, office and factory in the country to some energy-saving decent level of insulation? And then double glazing the windows. And updating the HVAC systems. Less than the stimulus bill. Less than the TARP's already wasted. Plus it would create jobs all over the place, and leave behind a tangible recurring benefit that would, in fact, repay the expenditure. And cut down on energy use.

Some Numbers: Residential construction was down 23% in December (YOY) and down over 50% from the March '06 high.

Before: The Italian GOP Rightists have banned 'foreign' foods from Lombardy, the Venito and other places where they are in power. It's aimed at 'kebabs and Chinese foods'. Except the pastas are fro China. The tomato's from Peru, as is the potato. Get that gnoochi out of here.

Sweet 16 18: For the 18th consecutive year, glaciers in North and South America and Europe shrank, some retreating as much as as 10 feet, and on average twice as fast as 10 years ago.

Here's The Plan: There's no need to wait a week to find out the basic outline of Geitner's plan to bail out Wall Street. In terms even an economist could understand, it's this: The Treasury is going to buy worthless assets for whatever the bankers want. Secretly. That's it. Simple.

Always Something: Rising sea levels are forcing sea water further up the Ganges, salting out farmland and invading the water table.

For Your Own Good: Ever get a call from your credit card company advising you they had noticed "unusual activity" on your card and wanted to make sure you had made the purchase? Now they're looking at what you buy to see if they still want you as a customer.

Great Migration: Some 26 million rural Chinese have lost their jobs in the big seaboard cities and are making their way back home. Unhappily.

Tax Breaks: The GOP will not support Obama's stimulus unless it includes even more tax breaks for business. Over 90% of US corporations pay less than 5% of their income in taxes. What's to cut?

Porn O'Graph: Do you buy this chart?

SAR #9033

The trouble with economic competitions is that someone wins them.

Qualification: How many years do I have to cheat on my taxes to qualify for a Cabinet position? Two? Four? Two out of Four?

Simple Math: The GOP says the stimulus bill will not pass the Senate unless Obama and the Democrats cave in and give them everything they want. Okay, let's have a show of hands again on who won the elections roll call vote and let them filibuster as the Dow drops further and unemployment rises, stores close...

Reasonable Doubt: The US is going to continue bailing out the banks and brokerages and insurance companies and car companies and damned near everything else because the free market system does things better than the government, right?

Bleeding Heart/Conservative Compromise: In order to protect children, after February 10th this year retailers are forbidden to sell toys with minute amounts of lead in them. Businesses have to stop manufacturing them by February next year. Ah, exports.

Geopolitics: The US is preparing to send 30,000 additional troops to Afghanistan, each one of them privately wondering what the hell the our vital interests are. Why not fence the whole place in and leave 'em to it?

Playing With The Big Boys: Fortress hedge fund went public in 2007, giving the little guy a chance to get in on the good times along with the uber-rich. So far the shares have fallen 94%, from $31 a share to $1.34.

A Rose by any other Name: Social scientists have discovered that kids with unpopular names tend to become criminals; they advise against giving your kid a name like 'Barack.'

The UN Diet: The UN's World Food Program in Zimbabwe is seriously underfunded. Their solution is to give each of the 7 million people dependent on them - that's 70% of Zimbabweans - 600 calories a day, which is less than half of what it takes to keep a person alive.

Bears In The Woods Bonds: Citigroup suggests that a "full-blown bear market" in bonds is underway. But that's just Citi, so reach for the salt.

Open Government: Soon, maybe this week, the government is going to give anonymous banks undisclosed sums of taxpayer money for unidentified assets of undetermined worth on terms as yet undecided... in an effort to build confidence.

This Ad's For You: Those TV sets showing ads may have tiny cameras looking at you to determine your age, sex, ethnicity and such so it can tailor the ads to you. Once we get the chips in our neck, they'll address us by name.

Ante Up: The EPA has entered the Sea Level Sweepstakes, predicting a 40 inch rise by 2100. Even a 16 inch rise would begin submerging New York.

Quoted: "We have to change the entire system, otherwise we’re going to have another one of these massive asset and credit and leverage bubbles, and it’s going to be disastrous." Nouriel Roubini.

Backwards: During good times the states expand their budgets and offer more services to the taxpayer. The taxpayers, in return, pass amendments which prohibit the states from budget deficits and most certainly do not support higher taxes. That's why there's no cake for dessert.

Hint: Beginning with Reagan, twenty years of GOP rule transfered massive amounts of money from the bottom 80% to the richest 5%. Sharply reversing that might be all the stimulus package needed.

The Man Company That Came to Dinner: AIG's back at the trough, having digested the first $150 billion plus. Now it is "looking at a broader array of recapitalization options." I don't know what that means, other than they've got their hand in my pocket again.

Not Even Maybe? Morgan Stanley analysts say hyperinflation is a distant possibility for the USA, which brings out the long knives of the deflationists. I think they're wrong; doesn't seem like a longshot to me.

Porn O'Graph: Toiling for oil.