Tuesday, May 22, 2012

SAR #12142

“There are many ways of being right.” Kurt Vonegut.

Reality Check: Now that Facebook's had a day to settle, how much did you loose? And how much more before it comes to rest?

Is There An Echo In Here? Why is the Chinese commodity bubble popping? Because everyone was convinced prices would only go up, and they pledged/accepted the underlying assets as collateral at close to 100% LTV and then reality came along. As a result, many are are defaulting on their commodity orders while the shipments – coal, iron ore, copper base metals - are en route. Things seem to be slowing in the Middle Kingdom – so much so that copper ore is being stored in car parks and iron ore in granaries.

Business Model: JP Morgan has a record $1.13 trillion in deposits, but has found a way to lend out only 64% of it. The rest it's been playing with; win some, lose some.

Bubble, Bubble, Toil And Trouble: Scientists have identified about 150,000 methane 'seeps' in Alaska and Greenland, some over a kilometer across, venting methane into the atmosphere. These huge fountains are different from and in addition to previously known methane seeps from permafrost and the seabed. The Arctic is earth's fastest warming region, and as the warming continues the methane releases will increase; the warming will feed on itself and have a huge – previously unidentified - impact on global warming. Atmospheric methane concentrations are already at their highest level in 400,000 years.

Clip and Save: Paul Krugman says a Eurozone breakup is no biggie for the US; only 2% of US GDP is tied to exports to Europe and the financial damage would be slight because Bernanke “can throw enough money at the banking system to keep this thing from being a financial meltdown.”

The Party's Winding Down: Three years ago, Term-Loan-Guarantee-Program (a fully FDIC-backed entity) was created to allow banks to get ultra-cheap funding. By the end of June about $60 billion of TLGP 0.3% debt is due and must be repaid (ha) or refinanced at a 3.5% - 4% cost.

Marginalia: Qatar is currently producing crude oil at full capacity and is sticking with its OPEC quota.

Just Say No: The US Preventive Services Task Force, an independent group of evidence-based medical experts, says that men should no longer take routine PSA blood tests because the screening results in the overdiagnosis of and unnecessary treatment for prostate cancer which can leave men impotent and incontinent. Urologists – for whom PSA testing is an easy and continuous income stream – were pissed upset.

Christmas Countdown:Defense industry stocks are holding up quite well, considering they face significant budgetary cuts come December 31st. Is this simple denial, or are investors betting on the Republicans riding to the rescue?

Graduation Exercised: Robert Reich is telling the Class of '12 a few verities. First, half of you are not going to find a job of any sort. If and when you get a job, it won't pay enough for you to pay back your student loans. And because you've been students and have never worked, you can't draw unemployment. Congratulations.

The Parting Shot:


In wildness is the preservation of the world. Henry David Thoreau


Anonymous said...

RE: Just say no -

Just recently I went to a doctor because of a tick bite. In all other respects I feel pretty darn good for all the miles on this body. After he looked at me for that he told me that I needed to see him for other items now that I was 50. Prostrate, colon, physicals and blood work. When I told him I'd rather be dead than on his medical treadmill he looked at me quite askew. As if I was nuts.

Go figure


CKMichaelson said...

RBM - Being older and wiser and now polyp-free, the only one I'd disagree with you on is the colonoscopy - when you get to be 65 or so. Just the once.


unhappyCakeEater said...

i know that "everyone" is doing it; but i like the new parting shot. the porn-o-graph often squeezed one more psi into an already overinflated ragemonster. butterflies at the end of your roundup are a well placed relief valve.

thanks for the free lunch ckm

CKMichaelson said...

Merci, unahppyCakeEater. I'd had a few requests to do so & my family says SAR is too grim to read daily, so maybe I can trap some flies with honey. I plan on running The Parting Shot for a while - self indulgent I know, but it motivates me to get out into the woods on a daily basis.


kwark said...

Re "Graduation Exercised": But still graduate school is seen as the best solution. My kid (who fortunately graduated without debt) has worked a few years for starvation wages and is considering graduate school. I'm just Dad so it's hard to get past the . . . whatever it is that has kids still thinking that doubling-down will work-out. 'Course it will for some . . . I just wouldn't bet on it.

And yes, thanks for the parting shot. I kinda liked the porn-o-graph but the picture is great.