Saturday, September 22, 2012

SAR #12265

There' is no evidence that tax cuts spur growth. CRS

Fat Fraulein Singing: Deutsche Bank says that the housing market has "mostly corrected back to pre-bubble levels." They point out that, yes, house prices fell 40% from 2006's highs, but prices are now 30% above “the millennium average” and because incomes have risen faster (sic) than house prices, houses are now more affordable. So cheer up: "The correction phase can be regarded as largely completed, and the outlook is improving." Take an umbrella with you, just in case.

One Explanation: In Goethe’s Faust the Mephistopheles persuades the heavily indebted Holy Roman Emperor to print paper money backed by gold that had not yet been mined. Sound familiar? The play's a tragedy.

The Outlook: “We see public schools across our city drained of resources, set up to fail and eventually closed, with all of the teachers — good and bad — laid off. Some of the closed schools become charter schools: private schools financed with public money, churning out private profit. Others become “turn-around” schools, reorganized around the latest educational fad.” Specifically Chicago, but widely applicable.

Tidal Flows: According to the Fed, household net worth peaked at $67.4 trillion in Q3 2007, fell to $51.2 trillion in Q1 2009 (a loss of $16.2 trillion), and is sup to $62.7 trillion in Q2 2012 (still down $4.7 trillion from the peak). Household real estate stood at $16.9 trillion in Q2 2012, $5.9 trillion below its peak. Abut 20% of houses with mortgages are still underwater.

Rhetorical Question? The question is, is Europe saved? The better question is, is the euro saveable? A series of stop-gap measures do not make a cure. Pretty much a single currency will require some form of political/economic singularity, and that's not on the horizon.

Porn O'Graph: Loss Leaders.

The Parting Shot:



1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Re: Porn O'Graph

I actually found that chart somewhat reassuring. While, house prices rose dramatically mortgage debt does not seem to have risen at the same trajectory.