Thursday, January 22, 2009

SAR #9022

Calling the bottom of the market is tricky; a 90% drop is an 80% drop followed by a loss of half of your investment.

Comprehensive Rescue Review: As in Yet Another Bailout. Geithner's testimony certainly suggested there are plans for further rescue efforts beyond those currently afoot. But this was in a Congressional hearing, so no actual facts were revealed.

Without Comment: "Riots in Iceland, Latvia and Bulgaria Are a Sign of Things to Come"

Swingtime: Some fear that debilitating deflation lies ahead. Some fear that paying for the stimuli will be inflationary. Some fear first the deflation, then the inflation. Some fear deflation then inflation, then deflation and then inflation. All fear.

Interesting, Very Interesting: The British government has only $61 billion in foreign reserves (less than Thailand!) and is talking about rescuing British banks with foreign liabilities of $4.4 trillion. Anybody got a pencil?

The New Civil Right: Has the time come for citizens to organize sit-ins and marches against building any more coal-fired generators? Maybe, but where will the electricity come from if not from burning coal? Who gets to sit in the cold, in the heat, in the dark while we try to replace the current infrastructure? Too much hope, not enough plan. The lifeguard business isn't getting any easier.

Deniers Lose Another One: Despite popular propaganda, Antarctica is getting warmer, not cooler.

Lilliputians: Global oil demand is expected to contract "sharply" this year, falling 430,000 mbd. That's a decline of one-half of one percent. 0.5% ! We're doomed! Forget about cheap gasoline, today's low oil price masks a looming energy crisis that could dwarf our current economic problems.

Paydirt: In yet another article debunking the idea of long term deflation is this: "I challenge anyone to show me when the consensus opinion was ever right in the long term." We all agree with that.

Environmental Stress: Economic collapse, lessening petroleum supplies and weather pattern disruptions caused by climate change will result in a global food shortage that will end in struggles and "survival of the fittest." Which assumes that those with the guns are the fittest.

Closing Time: Fixing the banking problem by following the Sweedish nationalization and re-sale model or the RTC goings on ignores the fact that the global financial environment was relatively healthy when these miracles were performed. But the light's dim, time's short, and she's not all that bad looking...

What If? If you think Roubini and Orlov are too optimistic, try Yudkowsky.

1958 Redux? With the return of science-based science and a newly minted respect for reality-based public undertakings, will there be a renewal of interest in science and engineering and a decline in B-school applications? Probably not, but while you're hoping for change, hope for this one.

Little Engine that Could: It's not ethanol, nor a fuel cell, but put an A123/Hymotion battery in a regular Prius, get 80+ mpg. The battery recharges from a regular 120v circuit and will last a decade. This has been an unpaid advertisement.

It's Supply and Demand: The market explainers keep talking about the drop in demand for petroleum as economies crash. But there's also a crash in investing to find and produce new supplies while the old supplies are dropping faster than demand. What if there's not enough oil available to fuel the recovery when the recovery finally gets here. Or isn't one scheduled?

Try It, You'll Like It: Please touch, fondle, caress the merchandise - 30 seconds and you've formed an attachment that will last at least as far as the check out.

No Money Down: Fiat is buying 35% of Chrysler without putting up any money now, or later. It will, however, pay the cost of re-tooling a Chrysler plant so it can make Fiats for the US market. Don't ask me; it's high finance,US taxpayers put up the money and Fiat pledges its reputation. This is called 'good will' when it's written off the balance sheet.

Porn O'Graph: For safety, bank on a parachute.


Anonymous said...

"I challenge anyone to show me when the consensus opinion was ever right in the long term."

I agree! Global warming has a consensus opinion.

Charles Kingsley Michaelson, III said...

Wrong. You are entitled to your own opinion, you are not entitled to your own facts.

Unknown said...

Just a quick note - one half of one percent is not 0.05%.

From my quick calculation, I can see that it is indeed half a percent, and in the calculation I did it becomes 0.99499 so I can see where the 0.05 number comes from, though. Thanks for your blog!

Charles Kingsley Michaelson, III said...

Anders - Thanks for the correction, I hate it whebn I make simpleton errors. Big errors, now, they're okay.