SAR #16041

It would be irresponsible not to speculate…

Cascade! Pessimism is piling up fast in banks, markets and brokerage houses around the world. Senior investment officers are warning that the NASDAQ may slide another 12%, others have already lowered their forecasts for the S&P from the fairly tepid gains predicted earlier, with S&P 500 earnings expected to fall 6.3% in the current quarter, with more losses to follow. European banks are facing serious cash shortages – Deutsche Bank posted a full-year loss for the first time since 2008, and Credit Suisse has posted its largest quarterly loss since the Lehman crash. US bank stocks are also being hit. Japan's 10-year bonds now have a negative return, which has seriously disturbed global bond markets. German exports and imports fell in December, as did German industrial output. In the oil markets, Chesapeake Energy, whose shares has fallen from $60 in 2008 to about $1.50 today, appears to be exploring bankruptcy options, and another 150 producers are expected to join the 60 which have already declared bankruptcy. Nobody says it is a panic situation, not yet. Keep your bags packed.

Facts Not In Evidence: The World Health Organization and the US Center for Disease Control point out that the evidence linking the Zika virus to microcephalic births is at best inconclusive. Of Brazil's 4,000 cases of microcephaly, only six have produced genetic material from the Zika virus and those may be circumstantial artifacts. On the other hand, Brazil's microcephaly rate was about five cases per 100,000 live births before the Zika outbreak, but in the past six months this has reached 200 per 100,000, so something is most certainly going on.

Bark Bark, Bark Bark: Clinton now claims that Senator Sanders has taken $200,000 from Wall Street, which he did, but the money was given to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (several years ago), not to Sanders, and distributed by them. Clinton went on to admit that “there was nothing wrong with that. It hasn’t changed his view! Well, the millions of Wall Street dollars I raked in it didn’t change my view or my vote either!”

Our Hero: The Seal Team 6 shooter who claims he killed Bin Laden is releasing his debut sex flick. He says “this visceral display of sexual power is a sure way to keep Tier 1 Special Operations relevant and on the front pages”

Wet Noodle: A former Texas prosecutor has been disbarred for knowingly framing an innocent man by presenting tainted testimony and making false statements that were crucial since there was no physical evidence linking the man to the crime. The man spent 18 years in prison, 12 of them on death row, before being exonerated. In a just world the prosecutor would spend his next 18 years in prison.

He Said: “We must dispel with this notion that anyone has the slightest idea what they are doing.” Does Paul Krugman include economists in this statement? All of 'em or just some?

Porn O'Graph: Say 'Ah'.

The Parting Shot: