SAR # 8180

"Investing on the basis of forecasts is a waste of time."
Albert Edwards, Equities Strategist, Societé General.

The first thing we do, let's kill all the lawyers: "That 6-year-old's going to sit in front of me, and I'm going to rip them apart. I'm going to make sure that the rest of their life is ruined, that when they're 8 years old, they throw up; when they're 12 years old, they won't sleep; when they're 19 years old, they'll have nightmares. And they'll never have a relationship with anybody." Defense Attorney James Fagan

The New Sub-Prime: As of May 08, 21% of 2006 vintage Alt-A loans are 60 or more days delinquent. The 2007's - not even a year old - are already at 18.5%. This will translate into big cuts in the ratings for derivatives based on these mortgages, which in turn will translate into big losses.

Trickle-Down: The GOP should take note of how the oil people do it. The trickle-down effect of higher oil prices is much more noticeable than the trickle-down effect of cutting taxes for the rich has been.

Things That Matter: It does not matter how much oil Russia, Libya, or the Saudis pump out of the ground. What matters is how much oil they put on the market for the rest of us to fight over. Exports come second after the home folks get their helping. Exports will decline faster than production. Read the text - after you look at the graph.

Contest: Send your guess as to the date and exact time of day on which the ice will disappear completely from the North Pole this year. Usual prize & conditions.

Imitation: Following the Supremes' lead, a federal appeals court refused to make the Bush administration follow the spirit or the the letter of the law. Why start now? The DC Court of Appeals ruled the EPA can wait until people are dying in the streets before deciding whether greenhouse gases and global warming are a threat.

Summer Programming: CBS carried a report predicting $200 a barrel oil in the next two years, with gasoline topping $7 a gallon, resulting taking 10 million cars off the road. It's a start.

Three Card Monte: There are more explanations for the increasing price of oil than my son has for not cleaning his room. But the decline in production from the world's largest oil fields is seldom mentioned. Declining fields lose about 4.5% of their total production every year, so new fields producing 3.9 mbd are required every year just to break even. Meanwhile demand continues to grow. Keep your eye on the ball.

Weight Watchers: New York state intends to cut its future energy use by 15% by economizing. I showed the article to my wife.

Safety First: The Bushwhackers, confronting a surge in solar power proposals, insists that - 25 years after Solar One was built on federal lands - there mus be a moratorium on new solar power plants on public lands (a) while the oil companies explore for oil (b) until after the miners tear up the land (c) while the cattle ranchers graze their stock for free (d) until the coal miners get through stripping the land (e) until an environmental impact study can be completed and (f) until hell freezes over.

Porn O'Graph: Sledding in the City.