Wednesday, July 15, 2009

SAR #9196

This is not a dress rehearsal.

Quoted: Whitney said. "This is what happens when you delay the inevitable. We're buying time here, but we're not restructuring the economy."

Pass It On: The CDC sees the best case scenario for H1V1 infection this fall at rates of 50 to 70% of the North American population, with a mortality rate of 0.5%. In a normal flu season about 10% ar infected and ony 0.1% of them die. The Asian Flu killed about 2 million in North America. Businesses should plan for significant drops in revenue and up to 50% of their employees staying home due to illness. There will be disruptions in supply chains, and essential services (transportation, power, communications) will be interrupted or degraded by absenteeism. A GDP drop of 20% is possible.

Grim Agreement: All sense of urgency has vanished and we are now watching a slow-motion human disaster. Economists essentially agree a slow, creeping, jobless recovery with unemployment rising well into 2010 seems likely. Millions of Americans will lose their savings and their homes, and their ordinary lives. Wall Street will continue to be bailed out.

Take It, Or Else: California legislators now want the state to mandate that its IOUs are legal tender for all debts owed to the state. Pretty neat, bringing back the company store.

Oops. Don't Tell The Cornucopians: Exxon has drilled a dry hole in the purportedly bazillion barrel off-shore Brazilian Tupi field. A "one off" they claim.

Future Foreseen: The WSJ claims the economy is even worse than I think - which is pretty scary. They see the states eating thru the temporary rescue from the stimulus and facing next year with deficits without end. So other things will end: public services, public health, maybe public education, even sanitation and police cutbacks. But Government supported Goldman and Citi will be fine, thanks for asking.

See / Saw : Morgan Stanley now sees oil at $85 a barrel in 2010, while BNP Paribas says it will fall to $45 a barrel by August.

Noise: Real tales are being spun about last month's retail sales. "Up!" Yes, on a month to month basis sales increased 0.6% which must be pretty much down in the 'statistical static' area. But it made the headlines. On a y/y basis, excluding retail food services, sales were off 10.3%. But that wasn't news that's fit to print.

Test Drive: If you decide to live together for a while to see if you should get married, you shouldn't.

One Size Fits All: According to the Chief Justice, convicts have no constitutional right to DNA testing. "A criminal defendant proved guilty after a fair trial does not have the same liberty interests as a free man" remains an 'open question' whether 'proof of "actual innocence"' is enough to overturn a conviction after a fair trial. Guilty is forever. How do you impeach the Chief Justice?

Sticks and Stones: At the G8 meeting, China said, "We should have a better system for reserve currency issuance and regulation, so that we can maintain relative stability of major reserve currencies exchange rates and promote a diversified and rational international reserve currency system.” All in favor of adopting rational international currency and foregoing the advantage you get from having your currency as the reserve of choice, raise your hand.

Porn O'Graph: Working on the railroad, or not.


Demetrius said...

How can you have a fair trial if the evidence is partial and inadequate? DNA is DNA is DNA and if it matters then it should be there in court. If it is not then the trial cannot be fair, and the jury were denied crucial information. But then I'm not a lawyer.

CKMichaelson said...

Demetrius - You get the usual prize for having the first correct answer. Good to see I made my point.


TulsaTime said...

Had to read TOD for 40 mins before I found that mention of the CDC estimate. That could be really severe, even on top of the depressed GDP numbers from our current mess. Just what a tottering western civilization needs, PLAGUE!!!!!!


Anonymous said...

CK: you left out the best part in "Future Foreseen:".

With the new health care bill in the house the government won't be able to take care of the millions of people that small businesses are going to dump into the program. For example a company with a 400K payroll will have to pay a fine of ~8%. If the average salary in that company is 50K and all employees are family covered than the the cost to the company would be around 110K per year + admin costs. *% of 400K looks alot better doesn't it.


CKMichaelson said...

Tulsa - sorry about the link - it should have been:

But spending 40 minutes reading TOD isn't entirely wasted...

RBM: There's no easy slide into single payer universal health care. The question is what are the smallest steps we can take along the way, to get there without uproar from the insurance vultures and false cries of "we can't afford it" from the manipulated middle. But it's either strike off in that direction or abandon great numbers of Americans to die untreated, kicked to the side of the road.



Anonymous said...

One Size Fits All: ... How do you impeach the Chief Justice?

Have him decide a case against Goldman Sachs.

Jim said...

I just stumbled across this blog from TAE and have to say I'm impressed with its conciseness and selection of articles.

Re: healthcare, what is needed is universal *catastrophic* health care for all with a large deductible ($5,000+ ?). Routine care should be paid out of pocket just like every other expense we incur. Sure, at todays prices, that would be completely unaffordable, but free market competetion would drive prices way down, eliminate overhead costs and give people total choice. Health care would be the same as buying groceries, a car, a house, or any other goods or services. Also a huge drop in bogus procedures (ER visits for a stunned toe, etc.) and insurance scams, rippgfs, etc.

Seems like a no brainer to me.

Jim said...

Just read the Exxon "one off" article about the Brazilian Tupi field. It says reserves are estimated at 5-8 billion barrels. Assuming world consumption of 80 million barrels/day, that would only last between 62.5 to 100 *days*. Of course the entire world wouldn't consume just from the Tupi field, in fact it couldn't, because "it's the size of the tap, not the tank" that counts. I just mention for comparative and illustrative purposes.

Anonymous said...

Wow, your idea of a $5000 K deductible is so right on. Never thought of that one. Then catastrophic is covered, and prices will come down for non catastrophic procedures. Also , as you say, people will stop running to the ER for a stubbed toe or a sniffle.