Friday, July 18, 2008

SAR # 8200

Secretly, late at night, don't you suspect
that Malthus was right?

Over the Rainbow: USB, Lehman Brothers, and Deutsche Bank all claim the S&P will gain the most in 26 years during the second half of 2008. Before you get too excited, stop and reflect on how well UBS and Lehman's have been doing of late.

Good News, Bad News: The good news is that this is not a financial crisis. The good news is that a recession is not the worst possible outcome. You don't want to know the bad news.

Fair's Not Fair: FAS rule 157 - the mark-to-market rule - was great when the mathmagicians invented CDOs that were worth more than the mortgages they were based on. Now that the CDOs are worth less, often far less, than the underlying mortgages, rule 157 is "problematic" Does this dress make me look fat?

Quoted: "The first two of the four indictable offenses at Nuremberg were: 1. Participation in a common plan or conspiracy for the accomplishment of crime against peace. and 2. Planning, initiating and waging wars of aggression and other crimes against peace. One hopes most senior US military officers are aware of this fact."

Here's a TIPS: Treasury Inflation Protected Securities don't have a chance as long as they are tied to the US governments deceitful version of inflation.

Choice of Concerns: Energy investment banker Matt Simmons says that by 2015 the worry isn't that we may produce 60 million barrels of oil a day, but that we will only be able to produce 40. “We are living in an unsustainable society. If we don't change we are just going to start fighting one another... So let's just start assuming the worst and plan for it.”

The Three Big Lies: The check's in the mail. I'm from the government and I'm here to help. Saudi Arabia can produce 12 million barrels a day of crude oil for the next 20 years.

Lose/Loose: In one of mankind's rare acts of cooperation, the ozone hole over the Antarctic is finally beginning to subside. As the hole recovers to pre-1969 levels towards the end of this century it will cause air temperatures to rise about 9º C, enough to begin melting. No more fire, the flood next time...

Leaning Tower: If my neighbor's $400,000 mortgage is converted to a $250,000 fixed rate 30 year loan, at no cost to him, why should I keep paying my on my overpriced now underwater mortgage that I have no equity in it? I'd better walk away; buy the same thing down the block for less. That's how Congress is going to save the neighborhood.

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