Monday, November 14, 2016

SAR #16319

Elections determine power, not truth.
First things first: Donald Pussygrabber Trump will become president in January. Between now and then the media will be full of frightening news stories and alarming analysis of what lies ahead -some of them will even be mostly true. But more won't be and most will overlook some basic principles that will moderate Trump's rush to ruin. A lot of his crap was just said to get attention, to get elected. What he does in office could be quite different. Not better, just different. Remember when hopey-changey Obama met the bankers and bondsmen? Winning the election isn't the same as governing.
Politicians' first job is to get re-elected. Thankfully most of the Republicans in Congress understand this. So there will be fiscal and legislative brakes on much of what Trump thinks he can do. Full repeal of the Affordable Care Act would result in at least 18 million Americans losing health care coverage. Republican lawmakers from states that have expanded Medicaid coverage will not vote to take that politically popular program away. Ditto Medicare and Social Security cannibalization, although there will be attempts to 'modernize' Medicare and “restore health care freedom to patients and doctors” while turning Medicaid into a block grant program for politicians to loot at the state level.
But Trump's range of options for executive action are sufficient to scare the sane. He remains a dangerous man, indifferent to facts, unbalanced, inexperienced and deeply racist. 60 million Americans have acted stupidly, siding with xenophobia, racism and nationalism, hoping to end equal rights for those they do not know or understand, urging a return to an imagined America unencumbered by treaties and no longer threatened by climate change.
He can, and most likely will, take some actions on immigration – but if he becomes too extreme (say by deporting 2 or 3 million people) the US economy will suffer. He can stop the current round of trade agreements – if the rich corporations will let him. Undoing NAFTA and NATO would take longer and be more complex – and again step on important industrial and Wall Street toes. And his transition team is full is of corporate lobbyists.
He will do the most harm – with the joyful support of the Republican Congress – in the energy/global warming area. (They are inseparable topics.) Trump will encourage oil and gas extraction, along with their pipelines. He will talk a good game about coal, but coal is not competitive with cheap oil and gas. He will repeal all of Obama's EPA regulations aimed at slowing our rush to hell on earth, repudiate the Paris Accord and welsh on the nation's commitment provide funds to help poor countries deal with their coming climate based disasters while withdrawing from the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (the organization behind the IPCC reports) and stopping all US funding for UN global warming programs.
Even if he were do abstain from all the other godawful things he has promised, denying global warming/climate change will secure his place in history as the worst leader in American history.


Degringolade said...

You know that I love you and that I am a long term reader.

But you have to stop calling us stupid because we prefer the flavor of one pile of shit slightly more than the flavor of a different pile of shit

Michael R said...

"Politicians' first job is to get re-elected. Thankfully most of the Republicans in Congress understand this. So there will be fiscal and legislative brakes on much of what Trump thinks he can do."

Nice thought, but, um, Kansas.

I would not assume that the Republicans see any part of Trump's agenda as inconsistent with re-election, nor would I assume that they would be wrong in such a belief.

mc said...

I had some hope at the beginning of your piece that you understood that any predictions about what happens have all the validity of the original prognostications about Trump's electability. Then you kept going. Trump is a salesman and businessman, not an ideologue, much less a commie-loving fascist, which was said lately with as much conviction as you just displayed. He also signed a letter to the NYT demanding Congressional action on climate change a few years back and insisted on conditions in his golf course deal in Scotland for recompense in the event of climate change. You have no idea which Trump is going to prevail, much less succeed. Take a deep breath or another of your occasional vacations. You're just as clueless as the rest of us right now. You may end up right. But you may end up like the people popping the champagne bottles and publishing "Hillary Wins" covers. Stop talking until the path is based on actions, not words. Thanks in advance.

Gegner said...

I'm not a Republican and I'm not buying the 'give the guy a chance' BS. I concur with your analysis and understand there are multiple 'wildcards' in play. Witness the beginning of the 'business as usual' parade, Trumps cabinet is [magically] populating itself.

Then there's the issue of he doesn't become POTUS until Jan 20th and he's not a young man. We could be getting our knickers in knots only to have Pence end up at the helm.

Then we'd have a whole different, albeit not necessarily 'better' game on our hands.

Which is to belabor the obvious, the system is broken, irreparably; even the founders admonished us regarding what needs doing next!

When a form of government no longer serves the people, it is the people's DUTY to abolish it and establish a more equitable system.

{Okay, I improvised that last part but saying we shitbags reserve the right to revolt if you mess with our share lacks that patina of 'truthiness'.]

Charles Kingsley Michaelson, III said...

Sorry, global warming is not a debatable subject - it is simple science.

That a fair percentage of my readers somehow could vote for The Donald is sufficient justification for me to depart the blogsphere.

We may survive - some of us in resettlement camps - the Trump years.

My grandchildren will not survive the effects of the Trump years, nor will yours.

The plug gets pulled tomorrow.

No reprieves. Comments will remain open for a few days, with no moderation nor replies by me -

charles kingsley michaelson, the thrid.

Anonymous said...

your position that ckm or i or others are clueless as to how trump will execute his duties in the office of president don't make sense. we have a track record on trump. true, running for office is far different than governing...things get said for political advantage. but here is what we know. trump does not have experience in government and public service, zero, none. trump is chronic self promoter who is in love with himself and will do outlandish things to make himself a star at the expense of others. from what he has said and done we know he is mean spirited and an opportunist. he is a liar often repudiating and denying what he has said on record. his relationship to women needs no explanation...if it does, for you , then certainly i will not be able to reach you with words. he accepts racists in his midsts and accepts their support. he exhibits traits of sociopathology... trump is charming as a manipulation.. the campaign showed for certain that he saw all manner of self-serving behaviors as permissible., saying terrible and unsubstantiated and horrible things about his opponents. he is grandiose, egotistical, " i alone can fix it"and we never heard him be self critical or show remorse or responsibility for his errors...(bankruptcies, failed marriages etc).
So let me set you straight, things are not as bad as they seem...thing are far worse than they seem. we are in deep , deep trouble.
michael in olympia

Anonymous said...

CKM, especially in a time of need, i am so sorry to hear you say you will go.
isn't there anything your patrons can do to assist, and persuade you, on some limited basis, to maintain the site.?
maybe once a week updates ? help with moderation ?
thank you for all you have done
i am in your debt.
michael, olympia

McMike said...

Well, it's your ball to take home. Clearly this blog is no longer bringing you pleasure, so that may be wise. You're commentary will be missed in any case.

You do have a premise here though that a President Clinton would have done anything meaningful - things that actually moved the needle - on climate change. There's not very much evidence for that.

A Trump Presidency may well be the best thing that could happen, allowing the left to reawaken the activism on several fronts that was subdued or snuffed out under Obama. We'll have to wait and see. Perhaps the left will be allowed again to care about the stuff that got it worked up under George W Bush, but became quietly acceptable with Obama - high among these is neglectful incrementalism on global warming.

You have chosen to focus solely on the more salacious aspects of the Trump campaign and its least attractive supporters. And in the process overlooked what many people view as the actual reason for his success: A large number of Americans are fed up with Washington, and particularly the Washington that Clinton represents. The Clinton campaign missed/misplayed this. The media missed/ignored this as well. Failure to recognize or acknowledge this demographic - coupled with active denigrating and insulting people who held this view - actually magnified the effect. People who had their doubts about Hilary were actively driven into Trump's open arms.

Trump's success was despite his massive downside, and this is not a testament to the racism of white rural America. It is a testament to the depth and breadth of the disgust with the Washington consensus among people across the country. Trump did not win because he was a racist (the GOP gets those votes anyway), he won despite of it, and was able to gain a near monopoly on the "disgust vote", because he was the only one of the two acknowledging it.

Clinton was the exact wrong candidate to counter Trump's appeal to people without hope. She has a perfect "credibility trap" problem, and she can only blame herself for the money-grubbing Wall Street speeches, pay-to-play foundation scheme, and arrogant private email system that magnified her unpopularity.

It does not surprise me that you attracted some Trump voters. You also attracted this Stein voter. You provided a witty chronicle of broken democracy and the daily follies of an entrenched corrupted elite.

I do wish you peace and happiness.

It's too bad. Now is the time we could really use your voice. There is a gap open, the corporatist Dems are on their heels.

Palolololo said...

Hawaii is expensive but nice. And 5,000 miles from the east coast. I'm going to ride out Donnie here.

Gegner said...

Farewell & Bon chance! Usually keyed off of what you expounded on to write my own posts but que sera!

Um, I voted for Snoopy...which they're saying is tantamount to voting for Trump but I think the whole system is broken and we don't vote on what matters, the laws themselves. [sic] we keep legalizing marijuana a dozen times and it's yet to happen.

They will keep doing what's best for THEM until WE Put a stop to it!

Sadly I don't have a mouse in my pocket nor is anybody listening to this old fool!

You are wise to cultivate other interests and make the most of what time you have left.

Like you, this crap is wearing me down...Ignorance can be fixed but stupid is permanent.

Don't need to tell anyone we're neck deep in stupid!

Mistake number one is thinking stupidity is curable, it ain't.

Anonymous said...

Particularly at this time of utter insanity I'm so very sorry to see you go. While I completely understand your wish to get as far away from this mess as possible, you will nevertheless be greatly missed. Many thanks for being a bright spot in my day and for very often putting a huge smile on my face with your humor. I'm sad but understanding and wish you the best.

Classof65 said...

Please don't go.

Class of 65

Anonymous said...

I've been reading this blog daily for a number of years , and I had been noting quietly how on point you've been of late. It's been a dicey period. Almost assuredly getting worse. The last thing people should be doing is shutting down discussion. It's understandable if you shut this blog for personal reasons, but if you shut it because of the stinker our country just laid, or because a few folks posting here see things differently, then that's indolent censorship. The next few years are going to be trying as is; far worse if the small communities of thought and discussion we depend on fall away. We're going to need to be tougher and more resolute if we're to weather this. Sites like this are informative, but also remind us that we aren't alone in our bewilderment among the unconscionable events and transgressions. Keep it open. Make it lean if you must, but keep it open.

drhooves said...

I believe the election results can be explained more easily in terms of "anti-Hillary" versus "pro-Trump". McMike is spot on with his comments on anti-Washington sentiment determining the outcome.

Ironically, I feel inclined to start up a blog, now that Trump has won. There is a glimmer of hope that we may not end up in a police state, but only a slight glimmer. With Hillary, there was no hope.

As for global warming, yes the science is indisputable. As for AGW, the debate is still open. As for an issue that was hijacked by the Globalists to gain power and influence, that's also indisputable, IMHO. However, the issues of the end of cheap energy, population overshoot, resource scarcity, and economic and political upheaval are far, far, bigger fish to fry than global warming.

Anonymous said...

I have enjoyed this blog off and on for several years. Based in Ireland, this gave me hope that critical analysis was not dead in the US despite the impression most of your media would give us here.

I am disappointed that you may cease blogging. Now, as much as ever, I think reasoned voices and calm heads are required.

But I respect your decision. You owe me nothing, but please allow me to express my thanks for your efforts to date.

As a sign-off for those who read your blog, would you consider posting links to what you would consider to be worth reading into the future?

Is mise le meas.

Anonymous said...

I wish you would reconsider. The disappointment for me is that the Democrats could seize the moment and come out fighting for their honor, integrity and the future of this country. But they won't, except for a few singular voices. The moment is now to harness the passions of those in the streets protesting, to direct their energies towards the environment, fiscal policy, the social safety net and foreign policy. Why isn't that happening? For me, it says everything I need to know about the moral depravity of the oligarchy of both "parties" and their lapdog MSM.

Anonymous said...

good bye CKM, and fair-thee-well.

in parting, some interesting numbers
108,000 votes spread across 6 counties in three states decided this election
about 10,000 wisconsin , 20,000 michigan and less than 70,000 in pennsylvania.
80 million registered voters ,
i weep for my country